U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to cut foreign aid now threatens to push Kenya closer to a resurgence of terror, with the reductions affecting more than one million refugees in the country.
The decision, alongside similar cuts by the UK, Germany, and the Netherlands, is impacting over 100 million refugees and forcibly displaced people worldwide, particularly raising alarms in Kenya. Experts warn that joblessness, hunger, and insecurity among refugees could fuel a rise in terror-related activities, according to reporting from Bloomberg.
In response, the government has deployed more security personnel, including the Special Operations Group (SOG), the Border Patrol Unit (BPU), and the Anti-Terror Police Unit (ATPU), among other specialised multi-agency teams, to address threats ranging from terror attacks to violent protests.
Authorities are particularly concerned that the aid cuts could create a generation of uneducated and idle young people susceptible to crime and extremist recruitment.
Data shows that over 80 per cent of working-age refugees in Kakuma are unemployed, compared to 51 per cent of Kenyans, according to the Kenya Longitudinal Socioeconomic Study of Refugees and Host Communities.
This economic strain has made some camps a target for Al Qaeda and Al Shabaab-linked insurgents, who are attempting to recruit hungry and unemployed youth by promising basic necessities and financial support.
A recent report by the NGO Refugee Group, a coordination body of international and national organisations, indicates a 40 per cent rise in extremist recruitment among Kenya’s refugee population since the aid cuts were implemented in August.
In neighbouring Somalia, where Kenya still has troops as part of an African Union Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), food aid now reaches only 350,000 people, down from 1.1 million in August. This shortfall further increases the risk of vulnerable populations being drawn to insurgent groups that have historically targeted Kenya.
Despite these challenges, Kenyan security agencies have intensified border patrols and operations over the past few years to prevent insurgents from crossing into the country.
Even so, the outlook remains uncertain for next year, as the U.S. government continues debates over its 2026 budget for health and humanitarian aid, which could determine the level of support for refugees in Kenya and across the region.
Meanwhile, on Thursday, the government officially chartered Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps into municipalities, ending their status as temporary camps after more than three decades.
Interior CS Kipchumba Murkomen, while addressing the IGAD inter-ministerial meeting in Nairobi, said that officially chartering Dadaab and Kakuma as municipalities opens the door to major infrastructure upgrades that will benefit refugees and residents alike.
