A recent study has projected that an estimated 3.8 billion people, or 60 per cent of the global population, are expected to be either overweight or obese in the next 25 years.
According to the study, there has been a spike in overweight and obesity rates over the last three decades, a trend that shows no sign of slowing down.
The study has projected that by the year 2050, almost two in three adults over the age of 25 will be overweight or obese.
"Our results indicate that by 2050, close to a quarter of the world's population with obesity will be older than 65 years," the study stated.
Furthermore, according to the study, the prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents is also expected to increase by 121 per cent in the next 30 years.
"Adult obesity is closely tied to childhood obesity. With the global prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents increasing by 244% in the past 30 years and having a forecasted increase of 121% in the next 30 years, trends in adult obesity prevalence are unlikely to abate," it stated.
The study, published in The Lancet medical journal on 3 March 2025, is titled "Global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 2050."
Overweight and obesity are defined as abnormal or excessive fat accumulation that presents a health risk. In adults, a body mass index (BMI) over 25 is considered overweight, and over 30 is classified as obese.
Obesity is one of the most serious global public health challenges of the 21st century, affecting every country in the Western Pacific region.
Obesity in adulthood is a major risk factor for the world’s leading causes of poor health and early death, including cardiovascular disease, several common cancers, diabetes, and osteoarthritis, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).
Obesity is caused by a combination of factors, including genetics, environment, diet, physical activity, and medical conditions.
The condition, which was once associated with high-income countries, is now shifting heavily towards low- and middle-income countries.
According to the study, there has been an increase in overweight and obesity rates in low- and middle-income countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia, a rise attributed to several factors.
The study highlights commercial determinants, particularly agricultural subsidies, which have transformed the global food production and supply ecosystem. This transformation has played a key role in changing dietary content across all populations.
Furthermore, multinational food and beverage corporations and fast-food chains have shifted their investments from high-income countries to low- and middle-income countries, putting the populations in these areas at greater risk of the condition.
According to the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) 2022, around 45 per cent of women and 39 per cent of men in Kenya are classified as overweight or obese, with most of them living in urban areas.
