Many political analysts believe Friday’s Court of Appeal judgment against the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) is a major boost to Deputy President Wiliam Ruto's 2022 candidacy.
That is, if the damage and the far-reaching implications it has on the handshake team, especially on ODM leader Raila Odinga’s candidacy, is anything to go by.
Besides politically vindicating Ruto, analysts believe the verdict has emboldened him and handed him the biggest political capital any presidential candidate would kill for anywhere in the world, months to the General Election.
Put differently, in the dispute largely believed to be the source of disagreement between the President and his deputy, some pundits say both the High Court and the Court of Appeal have vindicated the DP, saying he has all along been right (and his boss wrong) for the last three and a half years.
Speaking to kenyans.co.ke political analyst, Barrack Muluka believes the BBI judgment not only offers the DP the all-important momentum towards the 2022 General Election but also boosts him optic-wise.
“For the time being the image of the Deputy President is soaring, his image is high because he was always opposed to the BBI,” he says, adding that he now looks like the good guy who has all along been correct in the BBI tiff between him and the handshake team.
Muluka, is, however, quick to caution that what Ruto does with the massive political capital will determine if he will be the next president or not.
“BBI court ruling has given him political capital, that capital whether social political or economic has got to be managed. How he manages and uses that political capital is what will count in the long run," he says.
Muluka says the judgment is a major blow to the handshake team and has a far-reaching implication on the presidential ambitions of Raila.
“Conversely, President Kenyatta, Raila Odinga, and the handshake team, especially the likes of Francis Atwoli, who have been speaking with a lot of finality on BBI and chest-thumping, the judgment reflects very negatively on them,” he says.
Muluka says the impression the judgment has created about the handshake team is that they are unreliable and have been misleading Kenyans, offering to them false hope.
“The impression created is bad. Because for three and a half years they have been telling Kenyans certain things and it turns out very differently. They have got a lot of repair work to be done and a lot of damage control to be done,” says Muluka.
The analyst also cautions that the judgment is like a trap to the handshake team. How they react to the judiciary will say a lot about them.
“They should not appear like they are bad mouthing or bullying the judiciary. If they appear in the slightest sense that they are bullying the judiciary then that will undermine them even more,” he says.
The deputy president has been against the proposed constitutional change, claiming that they are top politicians’ selfish interests and do not target the average person.
Parts of the judgment seemed to echo Ruto’s sentiments, and in a way validating his concerns over the BBI.
“A popular initiative is a citizen-driven initiative and when initiated by the president, no matter how well-intentioned, it ceases to be a popular initiative and should be called a state or presidential initiative," Justice Patrick Kiage noted.
Needless to mention, the judgment has emboldened the Tangatanga wing of Jubilee and given their hustler narrative a big bounce that might further morph into country wide euphoria.
Murang'a Senator, Irungu Kang'ata says the High Court ruling on (BBI) has vindicated him, following his controversial letter to the President. Kang’ata, who is a close friend of Deputy President William Ruto, termed the judgment “proper, good and based on law.”
“I was victimized for that but now the courts have vindicated me,” he said, adding that he was sacrificed for speaking the truth.
Multiple political analysts are of the view that the Court of Appeal judgment has given Ruto an opportunity to not just set the agenda but control it, as Raila and the rest play catch up.
Addressing journalists at his Karen residence in Nairobi on Saturday, August 21, after the BBI verdict, Ruto sounded bullish and confident. He asked the President to forget about the BBI and refocus on the big four agenda.
“Without any doubt, the court brought the voice of Wanjiku to life, and called on us to move to the most pressing needs of our citizens and our nation. The court’s decision reaffirms that Kenya is a country governed by the rule of law, and not the rule of men; where the Constitution and the sovereignty of the people are supreme, and not the political elite,” he said.
Did the court give him a window of opportunity to create another narrative and become the "law and order candidate"?
Political analyst Martin Andati believes Ruto’s celebrations are misplaced. He argues that Ruto stood to benefit, had the BBI proposed changes been successful.
“It would have helped him in building a broad-based coalition and rope in more regional leaders. Now how does he navigate that running mate quagmire,” wonders Andati, adding that Ruto should not even celebrate because he never participated in the case.
Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) Secretary General Edwin Sifuna said Raila is down but certainly not out. He downplayed the BBI setback and said Raila is the man to beat.
"The BBI process was just a conversation. There may be "victors" in today's decision, and we cannot deny them a victory parade. But in a conversation about bettering our society there can never be winners and losers in the strict sense," he stated.
