The Kenya Meteorological Department has issued a sobering forecast for the final quarter of the year, predicting starkly contrasting weather conditions across the country. While the western parts of Kenya are expected to experience above-normal rainfall, the eastern half is likely to face below-average rains, raising concerns of potential drought.
During a press briefing on Wednesday, August 21, David Gikungu, the head of the Kenya Meteorological Department, outlined the anticipated weather patterns from October to December.
Gikungu emphasized that the western regions, including areas along the borders with Uganda and South Sudan, will likely receive abundant rainfall, which could boost agricultural productivity, replenish pastures, and enhance water resources. However, the eastern regions may not be as fortunate, with a significant likelihood of dry conditions prevailing.
Gikungu stressed the importance of anticipatory actions in response to the forecast, urging both government and humanitarian organisations to proactively address the potential challenges. "We are moving into an era where we no longer wait for disasters to happen but instead anticipate them," he stated.
He added, "With early warning information, it's crucial for all relevant agencies to roll out participatory actions to maximize the benefits of this forecast and mitigate the negative impacts."
The forecast, developed by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), covers 11 countries in Eastern Africa. The Kenya Meteorological Department will provide a more detailed, localised forecast for Kenya next week, with some adjustments expected as the forecast is downscaled to reflect regional specifics.
The anticipated weather conditions could have significant implications for Kenya's agriculture, food production, and water resources. While the western regions may benefit from the increased rainfall, the eastern parts of the country could face severe challenges, particularly if the predicted dry conditions materialize. The risk of drought looms large, with the potential to exacerbate food insecurity and strain water supplies in affected areas.
Adding to the complexity of the situation, Gikungu noted that temperatures across much of Kenya are expected to remain above normal during the October-December period, except in the western regions, which may experience cooler weather. The forecast also suggests that the onset of rains in the western half of the country will be timely, occurring at the beginning of October, while the depressed rains in the eastern regions will arrive later than usual.
The Kenya Meteorological Department attributes the anticipated dry conditions to the La Niña phenomenon, a climatic event characterized by the cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Niña is known to cause dry conditions in Kenya during the short rainy season from October to December. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has already indicated a growing likelihood of La Niña developing later this year, following the recent El Niño event that brought heavy rains to Kenya.
The impact of La Niña on Kenya could be significant, particularly in regions already vulnerable to drought. While WMO cautions that not all La Niña events result in drought, the potential for severe dry conditions remains high, especially given the erosion of coping capacities due to previous shocks. The combination of La Niña and other climate variables, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, which influences weather patterns in East Africa, could further complicate the situation.
The Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNWG) has warned that the recent seasons of above-average rainfall may only provide temporary relief. If the upcoming short rains are below average, as predicted, the impacts could lead to heightened food insecurity and malnutrition by early 2025. Should a second consecutive poor rainy season occur, the situation could deteriorate rapidly, with a recovery window not expected until the late October-December 2025 rains.
