White House sources on Tuesday, March 4, revealed that United States President Donald Trump halted all military aid to Ukraine after his clash with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House last week.
Trump’s latest move is set to have a significant impact on the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war with Trump seemingly geared towards facilitating a peace deal between the two nations that have been at war since 2022.
Since the onset of the war, the US has been Ukraine’s biggest ally, providing over $60 billion in military aid, five times more than the next nation, Germany which has provided $13.6 billion. The aftermath of the explosive confrontation between the two Presidents, which was televised live, has seen Trump pause the funding, a move that could have deadly ramifications for many countries such as Kenya.
According to the White House sources, Trump’s move is seemingly aimed towards pressuring Ukraine to enter into peace talks with Russia with Trump criticizing Zelensky for being insufficiently grateful for Washington’s backing in the war.
However, Moscow has maintained that any peace talks will be made on their terms adding that under no circumstances will they cede any of the ground they have captured so far from Ukraine. A section of Eastern Ukraine encompassing areas around Donetsk, Crimea, and Meltipol among others.
This puts Ukraine in a catch-22 situation where they have to decide between bowing to US pressure and engaging in peace talks where they will have reduced leverage or keep engaging in the war with depleted military support and resources. Either way, the consequences are dire.
The effects of Trump’s directive are expected to be felt in Kenya with Ukraine being one of Kenya’s biggest sources of wheat, which makes up a critical part of our food basket. Aside from wheat, Kenya also imports maize and sunflower oil, commodities vital to Kenya’s food supply.
In 2021, Ukraine exported approximately 355,500 metric tonnes of wheat to Kenya, accounting for about 15 per cent of Kenya's total wheat imports of 2.4 million tonnes that year.
Following the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, wheat imports from Ukraine to Kenya experienced fluctuations. In 2022, total shipments amounted to approximately 129,700 tonnes of wheat imported from Ukraine in 2022, a substantial decrease compared to the 355,500 tonnes imported in 2021.
In the long-term, sustained attacks on Ukraine from Russia especially in its current vulnerable state will severely dent the wheat imports into Kenya. Currently, 85 per cent of the wheat consumed in Kenya every year is imported with Ukraine a big contributor.
A decrease in the amount of wheat imported will lead to a limited supply amidst increasing demand with wheat increasingly becoming a staple in most Kenyan homes in the form of chapati. A scenario of this kind results in higher prices of wheat in the country as the country goes through tough economic times.
Similarly, prices of other grain imports from Ukraine such as maize and barley will most likely increase further putting pressure on the pocket of the common mwananchi. Currently, the average retail price of a 2kg packet of wheat flour is Ksh168. The average retail price of a 2kg packet of maize flour is Ksh133.
Aside from the food commodities, other areas of mutual cooperation between Kenya and Ukraine stand to be affected such as education and scholarships with Kenyans in the fields of engineering and medicine studying in Ukraine. Other sections include technology and defense, humanitarian and development aid as well as diplomatic relations.
