Ousted Nairobi Governor Mike Sonko is out to make a political statement in the upcoming Mombasa gubernatorial elections.
Sonko is combing the coastal county, rooting for former Senator Omar Hassan to succeed outgoing governor Ali Hassan Joho.
The controversial politician ditched Azimio weeks to the August 9 polls and joined Deputy President William Ruto's Kenya Kwanza. Should Raila Odinga's camp be worried about Sonko in the August 29 election?
Speaking to Kenyans.co.ke on Thursday, August 25, political analyst Herman Manyora argued that Kenya Kwanza made a brilliant move to win Sonko to their camp and rattle a county perceived to be ODM's backyard.
He highlighted the flamboyant politician had three cards that he could unleash and call the election to UDA candidate Hassan Omar's favour.
Populist Politics
Manyora opined that Sonko was a populist politician - the kind who fights against existing establishments and who rides on the appeal to the ordinary people. He noted that this will most likely draw in the youth vote in the county.
"There are people who he can excite such as the youthful voters who admire him. He can easily stray them towards Omar," he noted.
Sonko Ties to Mombasa
Although Sonko successfully won parliamentary, Senate and Governor seats in Nairobi, he has roots in the coastal county. He has also heavily invested in the city he calls home, setting up various businesses and establishments.
Manyora reckoned that the metropolitan nature of Mombasa is a cow the ex-count boss intends to milk. He added that Sonko's own community forms a substantial percentage of the population and may decide to throw its weight behind him.
"Sonko is from the Kamba community which has a significant vote in Mombasa which he may target ahead of the poll," the analyst opined.
Mr Money Bags
The political commentator held that Sonko will flex his financial muscle to persuade ODM's Sharrif Nassir's supporters to back his UDA opponent.
He acknowledged that money is a key factor in Kenyan politics and that unlike the two front runners, Sonko has the luxury of splashing funds on the electorate without having to look over his shoulder.
Ruto's Win in August
The declaration of Deputy President William Ruto as the president-elect by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) Chairman Wafula Chebukati will effect the gubernatorial race.
Manyora opined that while several petitions have been filed to challenge the win, the impeached governor may sell the 'fear of being in the opposition' with the hope of swaying some of Raila's votes.
However, he pointed out that this may prove to be an uphill task. He added that the postponement of the poll may result into a higher voter turn out in the region being predominantly ODM diehards.
What is in it for Sonko?
Sonko, Manyora continues, has a lot to gain than he will lose if he delivers Mombasa County to Kenya Kwanza. First, is that he would have gotten his much awaited revenge on President Uhuru Kenyatta and Azimio candidate Raila Odinga.
In addition, while he stands barred from holding any public office due to his impeachment, the outspoken politician will benefit from being in the inner circles of the government-elect.
"A win would mean that he would have hit back at Uhuru and Raila whom he felt would help him get over his problems. Remember they also refused to back his candidature.
"When people are in power and they are your friends, there are benefits that one will get. He may have influence in some of the appointments and may get contracts to do business with the county," the analyst affirmed.
