Sudan's General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan on Thursday, June 15, rejected the appointment of President William Ruto as lead negotiator for the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) peace talks.
Despite seeking South Sudan President, Salva Kiir, to be appointed in place of Ruto, foreign affairs analysts warned that Burhan's decision could complicate efforts to resolve the political crisis in Sudan.
Foreign relations expert Rashid Abdi told Kenyans.co.ke on Friday, June 16, that Sudan's disinterest in Kenya's mediation efforts could spark a diplomatic tiff between the two countries.
"There are viewpoints within diplomatic circles that some warlords see Ruto as one showing sympathies for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) leader Mohammed Hamdan Daglo Hemedti.
"This could hamper efforts to resolve the political crisis in Sudan, which has led to the death of hundreds of people and destruction of property in the country," Rashid claimed that al-Burhan, the leader of the army, perceived that Ruto would side with his rival.
The international relations expert sided with IGAD on appointing Ruto, highlighting that the authority recognised Kenya's crucial role in fostering peace in Eastern Africa.
According to Rashid, IGAD was thinking strategically, setting up long-term measures like planning for military intervention. It would be easier for member countries that enjoy military stability to consider deploying their soldiers on a peacekeeping mission.
Kenya and Ethiopia, he reiterated, have the largest military forces and economies. As such, ignoring their effort would be detrimental to the negotiations.
"Ruto's appointment as lead negotiator was seen as a way to bring Kenya's influence to bear on the situation in Sudan.
"It was also perceived as a way to balance the influence of Ethiopia, which is also a member of IGAD and was accused of supporting the coup in Sudan," Rashid opined.
He warned that IGAD would not risk recalling Ruto from the role. A turnaround may be seen as a sign of weakness, and the authority would also likely irk Kenyan authorities.
"It remains to be seen whether IGAD will be able to find another mediator who can gain the trust of both sides in the conflict, but that will most likely not happen," Rashid told Kenyans.co.ke.
He also noted that, in the long term, Kenya will have to review her relationship with Sudan, especially, after peace and tranquillity is restored in the Eastern African country.
"In the long run, it could also lead to increased tensions between Kenya and Sudan, therefore, the two countries will have to revamp their relations after the dust is settled," Rashid explained.
Foreign Affairs Principal Secretary (PS), Abraham Korir Sing'oei, concurred with Rashid arguing that only the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) could revoke Ruto's appointment.
“No official communication on this yet. But both the inclusion of the Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia Abiy Ahmed to the Troika mandated to seek peace in Sudan and the appointment of President William Ruto to lead the Quartet was arrived at by the IGAD Summit and can only be vacated by the Summit,” Sing'oei, an ally of President Ruto cautioned.
