Kenya risks losing financial development aid of about Ksh4.2 trillion from the United States and European nations if the anti-LGBTQ bill is enacted.
In an economic assessment study report sent to Kenyans.co.ke, lawyer and economist Fred Ogola warned against implementing the Family Protection Bill tabled before the Parliament by Homa Bay Town Member of Parliament Peter Kaluma.
Kaluma's bill seeks to criminalize homosexuality and same-sex marriages. If passed into law, it will criminalize the promotion, recruitment, and funding of homosexuality and LGBTQ.
“It is my submission that President Ruto should sign these bills into law only if he has a concrete plan of where he is going to get the Ksh4.186 trillion,” Ogola warned in a statement.
According to the economic assessment study conducted by Trailblazers Business Strategies led by the barrister, the criminalization of LGBTQ would immensely impact the bilateral relations between Kenya and European countries.
"Kenya depends a lot on foreign donors, especially the EU and USA. These donors have given pre-conditions for their continuous support, and one of their conditions - unfortunately, - is support for the LQBTQ which is presented as equal protection and non- discrimination of each individual irrespective of race, ethnicity, religion, sexual orientation, gender, etc..."
"Violating any of these conditions may lead to withholding of financial support. Therefore, if the bill is signed into law, Kenya must be ready to lose around Ksh4.186 trillion," Ogola warned.
The lawyer further argued that the government should be ready to part with Ksh11 billion if the bill succeeds, as the government will use the funds to train law enforcement officers.
It will also incur the cost of ensuring that the criminal justice system can accommodate the social and economic rights of those found violating the new laws on LGBTQ.
Ogola issued a comprehensive breakdown of the financial perks the country would miss once the bill is implemented. This includes humanitarian funding given by the EU, Ksh148 billion approved by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for Kenya in July 2023, Ksh81 Billion approved by the IMF to support Kenya’s efforts in building resilience to climate change and Ksh238 million for disaster preparedness given by the EU in 2023.
He attributed the rest of the amount as follows: Kh446.7 billion per year in tangible benefits to Kenya's economy and development from the US. Ksh446.7 million per year as US humanitarian assistance to Kenya (citing the amount Kenya received in 2022) and Ksh713.2 billion given to Kenya by the European Union under Joint Cooperation Strategy 2018-2022.
However, it is yet to be clear whether Kaluma's bill will be enacted, given that in February this year, the Supreme Court of Kenya ordered the Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO) Board to approve the registration of the National Gay and Lesbian Human Rights Commission (NGLHRC).
Supreme Court further stated that despite homosexuality being illegal in Kenya, members of the LGBTQ still have a right to association.
