Mutahi Ngunyi's Interesting Theories that Came True [LIST]

Political Analyst, Prof. Mutahi Ngunyi has on several occasions come up with intriguing analyses and predictions that have eventually played out in Kenya's political arena.

While his best-remembered theory is the "Tyranny of Numbers", unbeknown to many, Ngunyi - who bases his hypothesis on science and current trends - has made other political predictions that came to pass.

Here are some of the theories by the political analyst who termed himself a "Prisoner of Scientific Conscience".

1. 2007/2008 Post Election Violence

Before the country plunged into the 2007/2008 Post Election Violence, the Professor had already foreseen the eventualities.

In one of his opinion pieces, he hypothesised: "Consider a hypothetical situation here. What would happen if President Kibaki decided to run for re-election in 2007 and lost? Would he and his men have the grace to hand over power peacefully?"

"From the way they have behaved, I doubt it. And where would that leave the country? At the risk of sounding crazy, I want to suggest the following. If we thought that Mr Moi would plunge the country into civil strife, he proved us wrong. NARC is the party to plunge the country into civil strife," Ngunyi predicted.

The political scientist painted former President Mwai Kibaki, a dictator who had learned the skill from his predecessor, Daniel Moi.

True to his prediction, the happening came to pass with about 1,500 Kenyans being killed and over 500,000 displaced from their homes.

2. Kibaki to Choose Uhuru Kenyatta as his Successor

When former President Mwai Kibaki's term was nearing its end, Ngunyi was at it again theorising who would succeed him.

In his analogy, Prof. Ngunyi mentioned that Uhuru Kenyatta could be the likely candidate, adding that the choice would be based on the sole motive of 'protecting old wealth'.

"If his motive is to protect wealth, who will execute the brief? Which crony will succeed him? Is it Mr Kenyatta? If Mr Kenyatta is the man to protect their turf, they will install him and swear him at night if they have to,” the political scientist noted.

Ngunyi however, dismissed this possibility following the mention of Kenyatta in the 2007/2008 Post Election Violence case at the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Nonetheless, in 2013 Kenyatta took over from Kibaki to be the fourth President of Kenya.

3. Tyranny of Numbers

After Kenyatta and William Ruto rallied together to get Kenya's top jobs, Ngunyi came up with the tyranny of numbers theory which he stated would be a strategy that would be used to defeat CORD leader Raila Odinga.

In his analysis, the University don noted that Kenyatta would defeat Odinga in the Presidential race in the first round.

According to him, the inevitable win would be from Jubilee Coalition's "bankable" ethnic vote of 6.2 Million (or 43.2 percent of the total vote) compared to CORD which started off trailing with 19.2 percent of the votes or 2.74 Million votes.

The impact of the "Tyranny of Numbers" would later become more profound in Parliament where the ruling coalition has continued to use its numerical might to propel their agenda and defeat the Opposition.

4. 2013 Election Will be Rigged

Before the popular Tyranny of Numbers theory, Mr Ngunyi suggested that the 2013 poll would be rigged.

In what he said was a conspiracy theory, the political analyst highlighted that "I read a pattern in President Kibaki's action. A pattern that suggests a possible manipulation of the 2012 Election."

He added: "To mention Raila Odinga in passing, I believe he has been set up for failure by the President (Kibaki)."

To date, the Opposition believes that the Government conspired with the electoral body to rig the polls, hence, their unrelenting calls for the overhaul of the Isaac Hassan-led IEBC team and the implementation of an exclusively electronic voting system.

Apart from the above, Mr Ngunyi has also predicted that Kenya will continue to be governed by two communities; Kikuyus and Kalenjins.

He has also premised that Mr Odinga will NEVER be Kenya's President.

Time will only tell if these future predictions by Ngunyi will come to pass.

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