Nearly half of Kenyans expect ODM leader Raila Odinga to abandon President William Ruto ahead of the 2027 elections, according to the latest survey.
The study, by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA), released on Wednesday, May 28, shows that at least 46 per cent of those surveyed believe Raila will bolt out of the broad-based government, and his relationship with Ruto is highly likely to shift from that of friend to foe.
Those sampled believe Raila will rejoin the Opposition, whether he will be seeking the presidency himself (28 per cent) or he will be supporting another candidate against Ruto (18 per cent).
Despite being part of the contentious broad-based government that has seen Raila and Ruto strike up a political partnership, a section of supporters of this agreement still believe he will be Ruto’s competitor in the polls.
As per the report, more than one-third of broad-based government supporters expect that he will have turned his back on the current arrangement, rejoining the opposition, either by running himself (25 per cent) or supporting a candidate against Ruto (13 per cent).
For those against the broad-based government, slightly more than half believe he will have rejoined the opposition by 2027, either through fronting his candidature (31 per cent) or supporting one (22 per cent).
Even so, 23 per cent of Kenyans think Raila will support Ruto in the upcoming elections. Within the broad-based government, 38 per cent are confident that Ruto and Raila will stand side by side in 2027.
In August 2024, Raila, in his own words, “donated some of his experts” to Ruto after the president dissolved his cabinet following dangerous anti-finance bill skirmishes.
This resulted in John Mbadi (Treasury), Wycliffe Oparanya (Co-operatives), Ali Hassan Joho (Mining), Opiyo Wandayi (Energy) and Beatrice Askul (EAC & ASALs) joining Ruto’s government as cabinet secretaries.
In turn, Ruto pledged full support for Raila’s African Union Commission (AUC) Chairmanship bid and advanced numerous resources in that endeavour. However, Raila failed and lost the election in February.
Ruto and Raila went on to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that would see the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) work together despite the loss.
The MoU, based on a ten-point agenda, was signed on Friday, March 7, at an event held at the Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC) in Nairobi and attended by several high-profile leaders, including politicians from Kenya Kwanza-affiliated parties and the ODM party.
Among the key agreements reached between the two leaders are the full implementation of the National Dialogue Committee (NADCO) report, addressing youth unemployment, and the implementation of the two-thirds gender rule.
Secondly, Ruto and Raila also agreed to enhance inclusivity among Kenyans regardless of their religion and political affiliations. According to the leaders, enhancing inclusivity would improve opportunities for all Kenyans, especially public appointments.
Both Ruto and Raila have kept mum on any coalition or alliance to ride on in the 2027 polls, with leaders allied to them also sending mixed messages on developments surrounding plans to work together in the elections.
