Outspoken political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi weighed in on Kenyans Coronavirus cases, predicting that Kenya may have 5,333 deaths and over 160,000 infections by April.
The political scientist, through his Youtube channel on Saturday, March 28, analysed Kenya's scenario with 31 reported cases by then (122 cases as at Thursday, April 3), in comparison with Italy, Spain and Iran which have recorded high cases of the outbreak.
Ngunyi explained that he asked his young researchers to use exponential models to study the three nations, arguing that he may be wrong, but his analysis was being used to call upon other scientists of his nature to deliberate on the issue. He further gave his opinion on how Kenya can avoid soaring numbers of Coronavirus, and measures the government can undertake to curb the spread of the disease.
"If we knew now what Italians knew when they had 31 cases as we did, what would we do differently. The 31 cases were still partying and eating life with a big spoon. Because they were treating life with contempt, they got what was coming to them, they recorded massive deaths.
What about the Spaniards. What did they do when they had 31 cases only. What did they ignore and why do they regret it. Like Kenyans, the people of Spain are anti-authority, in the name of democracy and human rights. They ignored government directives. They abuse their leaders, criticise them and intimidate the police. Now their bodies are being carried in military trucks for mass burials.
While studying the three nations, Ngunyi, however, asked his researches to base their analysis on the fact that Kenya's health system was weaker than Spain's, Iran's and Italy's. According to him, the model results came back with a 95 per cent confidence level. The predictability model indicated that if Kenyans behave the same as the Spaniards, Kenya would have 160,000 infections by the end of April.
That calculates to 40,000 infections in every single week. If in the 31 cases by then, one person died (tally was at 4 deaths by Thursday, April 3,) then in 160,000 cases, 16,000 deaths would be reported. According to him, Kenya would hypothetically record 5,333 deaths by Thursday, April 30.
"If we use the Italian comparative, the figures change hypothetically. They had 80,000 infections with 8,000 deaths representing ten per cent of the infected. If Italy has better facilities than Kenya and ten per cent of the infected have died, then if you have 160,000 infected in Kenya, 16,000 deaths will still be recorded and I could also be completely wrong on this.
Numbers don't lie. If you cornered them earlier, they would have told you the truth and its simple, things are bad. The US and the UK are overwhelmed by this virus, who are we? If UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and other world leaders contracted the disease, what chance does a common person from Korogocho have? Ngunyi wondered.
The analyst went on to make a few appeals. He urged Kenyans to stand by President Uhuru Kenyatta, without wavering and challenging his authority.
"If he orders a curfew (which he did and it commenced on Friday, March 27), we must support it. If he orders a total lockdown, and which I actually think he should, we must support it too. And when things are difficult, let us innovate, because Kenyans are very good at brilliant innovations and we must lead the world in managing our slum populations.
"For instance, the slum dwellers can be moved to churches, because this is one of the biggest challenges. After all, churches are closed until this virus is gone. From there, they can be isolated and taken care of," he opined.
He further appealed to the government to be tough on handling Coronavirus pandemic. According to him, this was a moment where every measure was crucial in preserving the majority of the people.
"This is that time whereby the end justifies the means. We should preserve our young men, and we cannot do so by being nice," Ngunyi concluded.
Video: Mutahi Ngunyi/YouTube/The 5th Estate
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