On Thursday, May 14, the number of Covid-19 cases in Kenya stood at 758, with 42 fatalities. These numbers are likely to go higher as testing increases.
As the government increases the testing of the virus and the population is advised on protection measures, some trends have become noticeable - some age groups are more vulnerable while others account for most of the transmissions.
Amref Health Africa Global CEO Dr Githinji Gitahi spoke to Kenyans.co.ke shedding more light on the concept of spreaders and how to keep the virus cases at a manageable level.
"By spreaders, we are basically referring to the people who are transmitting the disease to others," he told this writer over the phone.
Dr Githinji, who's a Co-Chair of the Universal Health Coverage (UHC) 2030 steering committee, added that the people who are the least mobile are the ones least likely to transmit the disease to others while attributing most spreaders to the 20 to 40-year-old group which is most active.
The group accounts for almost 50 per cent of all infections in Kenya but only 9 percent of deaths so far.
"When somebody in this age group gets infected, they are likely to move around a lot by going to work and boarding matatus. So they infect more people due to their interactions. The interactions are less for someone who is 59 years," the health professional conveyed.
From the figures of Kenya's Covid-19 cases, Dr Githinji noted that men above 60 years were most vulnerable to severe disease with 38 percent of all those in this age bracket who are positive in Kenya, dying.
Only 16 per cent of women above 60 years who tested positive have died. While that’s still high compared to the general population, it is less than half the case fatality rate as in men of the same age.
He attributed the disparity to men's lifestyles that made them more susceptible to getting infected and also socialization. These risky lifestyles (drinking alcohol and smoking) put men at more risk of the severity of the disease.
World Health Organisation (WHO) on Wednesday, May 13, had warned that the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic may escalate into an endemic like Malaria or HIV and may never truly go away.
Dr Githinji explained that by being endemic, the disease would be present for a long time with waves where cases spike and drop.
"Assuming there is no vaccine, all of us are susceptible meaning we can be infected by the virus. Over time almost all of us will get infected. As we get infected the chances of the virus transmitting from one person to another reduces because the assumption is cases of reinfection are reportedly milder than the first time.
"As more people get infected, the rate of infection becomes lower because there are fewer people to infect as the majority have become immune are not susceptible. 60 or 70 per cent of the population gets infected and the virus dies away because reaching the other 30 per cent is harder as people are spread randomly," he stated.
Flattening the curve involves planning for getting 60 percent of the population over a long period of time so as not to overwhelm the health systems.
"If you spread over one year, then 2 or 3 percent of the critical cases can access the ventilators and heal. but if the 60 per cent gets infected in three months, you will have too many people needing specialized care at the same time."
He explained that if practiced diligently social distancing would be efficient in flattening the curve.
