Policy adviser and strategist, Professor Peter Kagwanja, has detailed how the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader, Raila Odinga, will emerge victorious over Deputy President William Ruto in the Mt Kenya region.
Kagwanja, on Tuesday, October 26, stated that Raila’s message based on prosperity, investment and the people’s welfare sit well with the people from the vote-rich region, adding that it was the best strategy to sell his agenda to them.
The strategist argues that Raila had transformed himself to offer hope and a solid economic agenda to a very troubled region that has been damaged by the pandemic and also lacks a kingpin they can rely on.
He compared Raila with former President Mwai Kibaki, who in 2010, traversed the country and canvassed votes for the new Constitution.
“We had never seen Kibaki campaign vigorously, but he did it and the headlines thereafter referred to him as the ‘New Kibaki’. I can say the same about Raila. This is a new Raila Odinga. He talks about the language of unity and economy."
“Take, for example, the idea of providing Ksh6,000 for unemployed youth. The unemployment fund is not a new idea in the world. It is what has made America survive through the pandemic better than many other countries. It is not a fund that is equivalent to a salary. It is what you get as you survive looking for a job - a lifeline, to enable you to move from one place to another. When you get a job, you are taken out of it. It is countering capitalism that leaves you with nothing,” Kagwanja explained.
The political strategists further used President Uhuru Kenyatta and DP William Ruto’s Older Persons Cash Transfer (OPCT) model to argue that the approach, which was opposed before, has worked as the aged depend on the cash.
Kagwanja also opined that Raila’s message of hope would counter Ruto’s hustler narrative which is reportedly based on class divisions. Ruto, he argued, has been centering his politics around the youth.
In 2002, he teamed up with Uhuru to face Kibaki by organising politics around the youth.
“It was a clash of generations, Kibaki was old and Uhuru was young. And that time, ethnicity levels were low as the axis around which politics rotate. In 2022, he has come with a class division that he says has submerged ethnicity. When you talk about mama mboga and the ordinary people, you are classifying the haves and the haves not. That is what he is capitalising on."
“He is not strong for the haves, the dynasty in the lexicon of the hustler nation, but look at his strategic thinking. That Mt Kenya has so many cleavages of class. Those who have and those who do not have. Those who claim that they don’t have because of historical reasons. And those who have because they had lost because of the pandemic,” he detailed.
Kagwanja added that Ruto is fishing in a very troubled nation and the hustler nation is selling unless something else is done. And that is to give people confidence and show them that there is a glitter of hope into the future.
“That is what Raila is offering,” he noted.
Political analyst, Dr Barrack Muluka, however, argued that the Mt Kenya people will decide and lead the line as there is a vacuum for a kingpin in the mountain region.
“I feel that if they wanted, people from the mountain region would present another candidate. DP Ruto may or may not be in the lead for Mt Kenya votes but he is in a very formidable position as of now,” Muluka weighed in.
The University of Nairobi (UoN) don, Herman Manyora, countered Muluka, stating that in the fullness of time, Mt Kenya will listen to their leadership comprising of Uhuru as the kingpin and other community leaders.
The Political Science lecturer added that the region will not listen to the young Mt Kenya leaders surrounding Ruto.
