Deputy President William Ruto is at a crossroads in charting a political future following the outcome of the debate on the Political Parties (Amendment) Bill, 2021.
Political analysts Barrack Muluka and Jane Thuo have, however, downplayed the impact of his loss in Parliament on Wednesday. Speaking exclusively to Kenyans.co.ke, the analysts are of the opinion that the implementation of the Bill cuts both ways.
Muluka termed the scuffles between the handshake-allied and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) allied MPs as a mere show of might.
“It’s not a loss as such (to UDA). That was political posturing where they (UDA-allied MPs) wanted to flex their muscle and show that they are one big party, which they succeeded. In terms of implementation, it cuts both ways. I don’t think there is a big loser or winner,” stated the seasoned political analyst.
Muluka expects the Bill to sail through in Senate as well saying: “It’s not going to be any different. I expect it to go all the way to presidential assent. In the unlikely event that it fails to pass at the Senate, then it is likely to go to arbitration (at the Political Parties Tribunal).”
However, Jane Thuo, on her part, saw it as a win for the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader, Raila Odinga.
“I haven’t gone through the entire BBI document word for word but I’m sure this was just another avenue to see through some of the things they wanted to have through the BBI that did not pass,” she stated.
“I don’t think it is a loss to Ruto. I think he is starting to see that he can change his stance and now look out for formal coalitions with smaller parties like Mwangi Kiunjuri’s TSP (The Service Party) and Moses Kuria’s CCK (Chama Cha Kazi),” added the analyst.
Political analyst, Mark Bichachi, had a different view, that Ruto was a loser in the end, and that he now has to change stance on teaming up with other political parties. He also felt that the Bill makes the road clearer for Raila to move forward with the Azimio La Umoja movement.
“Ruto has said he wants to be monogamous. Raila on his part, wants to be polygamous. Problem is, there are many wives (political parties). So whose gain is it?” he posed.
The three, in the meantime, were of the opinion that the Bill implores the One Kenya Alliance (OKA), under the stewardship of Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper), Musalia Mudavadi (ANC), Moses Wetangula (Ford Kenya) and Gideon Moi (KANU), to move with haste in deciding their political future.
“For OKA, they have to move quickly, considering the deadline for formation of political alliances in February. In any event, the deadline for political parties’ primaries is in early April so they have to move with haste,” Muluka stated.
“Many are saying OKA would want to go all the way and force a run off, but I’m thinking, why would they, when at the time, most of the parties and/or coalitions would have shared all the positions at stake?” Bichache wondered.
Thuo, meanwhile, remained cautious that the OKA could be having secret plans that shouldn’t be underestimated, saying: “For OKA, who will they join? And they also could be divided in the middle going by the recent developments. If they go all the way, they could be playing a spoiler role. But they may as well be hiding a card under the table so we only wait and see but either way, they are in a catch-22.”
The Political Parties (Amendment) Bill, 2021, is now set to head to the Senate on Tuesday after which, if passed, shall be brought before the President for assent.
