Why Raila Allies Are Skipping Anti-Ruto Protest Rallies - Analysts

A photo collage of Suna East MP Junet Mohamed(left) ODM Deputy Party Leader Hassan Joho (centre) and Siaya Governor James Orengo (right)
A photo collage of Suna East MP Junet Mohamed(left) ODM Deputy Party Leader Hassan Joho (centre) and Siaya Governor James Orengo (right)
Kenyans.co.ke

The opposition has in recent times been on an overdrive castigating President William Ruto’s government with protest rallies being the modus operandi.

Azimio leader Raila Odinga issued demands to  the government while at the same time terming it illegitimately elected to office and denounced President William Ruto.

But as the old adage goes, "a general is just as good or just as bad as the troops under his command make him."

Odinga a veteran politician commands a loyal political base that follows and listens to him to a fault, that too can be stated of his allies.

ODM deputy leader Hassan Joho chats with party chief Raila Odinga during a meeting with ODM aspirants at Jubilee hall in Mombasa on March 2021
ODM deputy leader Hassan Joho chats with party chief Raila Odinga during a meeting with ODM aspirants at Jubilee hall in Mombasa on March 2021
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ODM

However, immediately after losing out to Ruto, a number of his key allies seemed to have taken a back seat after his call for protest rallies against the government.

Kenyans.co.ke sought to understand why this was the case.

According to Political and Governance expert, Martin Andati most of the allies missing were just scanning the political landscape.

“Most of them are still watching the political space and looking at their future politically. Governors like James Orengo and Gladys Wanga cannot be seen to be castigating the government while at the same time seeking favours from it,” he stated.

 

On the Azimio leadership seeking to discipline members warming up to the government;

“Of what value will that be to them? Wouldn’t that be weakening the coalition? However, the missing of his insiders like Junet Mohamed and Ali Hassan Joho makes him appear weaker,” he posed.

According to Andati, leaders like the former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya were hanging around Raila with the hope of being endorsed for 2027.



"Oparanya still hopes that Raila will endorse his bid for the 2027 Presidency. This could fail because Raila has not indicated not running again for office," he observed.

Andati further stated that Raila would engage the masses directly and doesn't necessarily need the leaders.

Equally, Political Analyst, Dr Jane Thuo concurred with Andati revealing that Odinga would go directly to the people to air his grievances while pushing against the government.



"Raila is a seasoned politician and has nothing to lose. He is taking a gamble. If he succeeds to draw the mass like has happened in the last rally, those who still want to remain relevant will come looking for him,"

Dr Thuo also disclosed that it could also be a change of tact with Odinga gaining support from disgruntled elected government leaders.

"However, it could be a change in strategy. Probably many of those leaders including from Kenya Kwanza could be supporting him behind the scenes like funding and mobilizing. We saw the Nairobi governor being accused of the same," she stated.

On why Kenya Kwanza leaders would support their nemesis, Thuo revealed that it was all a power game.

"If you don't give people space to express their democratic rights eg the stopping of regional caucuses, they look for alternative ways to make you recognize and appreciate them. There is the thorny issue with CDF, senators clashing with governors in the oversight role and how the government is handling that. Politics unfortunately is a power game, nothing personal," she opined.

On January 8, Odinga explained why ODM Deputy Party Leader was missing from his political activities stating that Joho was out of the country and would be returning home soon to continue with the party's political engagements.

"Hassan Joho is out of the country but he is going to come back. I talk to him all the time. Even this week I have talked to him and when he comes he will make his contribution. ODM is very much united," Odinga explained.

Governors from Odinga's stronghold Nyanza have in recent times warmed up to the government and penned deals with Ruto while pledging to work with his administration.

"As the first county to have entered into an MoU with National Housing Corporation on affordable housing, we are ecstatic to welcome the president to preside over the groundbreaking of the first phase of the Homa Bay Affordable Housing Programme," Homabay Governor Gladys Wanga stated.

Kisii Governor Simba Arati too pledged to foster good relations with the national government pledging to work for the benefit of locals.

"I’m in charge of Kisii County and Ruto is the President. What is wrong when two leaders work together?” Arati asked.

With Odinga set to hold another protest rally on Sunday, February 5 it remains to be seen if the political musical chairs will dance in his favour.

Azimio Leader Raila Odinga addressing crowd at Jacaranda Grounds on Sunday, January 29, 2023.
Azimio Leader Raila Odinga addresses his followers at Jacaranda Grounds on Sunday, January 29, 2023.
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Raila Odinga
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