Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) cracks continued to widen after party chairman John Mbadi announced on Tuesday, February 7, that he was willing to step down from his position.
The nominated Member of Parliament (MP) made the declaration hours after 8 ODM politicians met President William Ruto at State House, Nairobi, to pledge their loyalty.
Kenyans.co.ke, speaking exclusively to political analysts Martin Oloo and Bobby Mkangi, sought to ascertain how Mbadi's threats hamper ODM's agenda and the candidates who may eventually succeed him.
The future of ODM
Constitutional lawyer, Bobby Mkangi, remarked that Mbadi stepping down was an opportune time for the party to undertake internal restructuring.
“The party needs a reorganization because it is unsettled, and this should start from having grassroots elections.
“Currently, ODM does not seem to be reading the same script even when it comes to the attendance of political rallies,” he explained.
Martin Oloo, an advocate of the High Court, remarked that ODM was tittering and was on the brink of collapse.
“The last of what we used to know as ODM has passed. We are about to witness an implosion inside ODM and the likelihood of a new party.
“When you see Mbadi stepping down and some politicians heading to State House, the statement is that the old ODM is facing challenges, and we witness an implosion and therefore a reincarnation of other political formations,” he told Kenyans.co.ke.
Who will replace Mbadi?
Hassan Joho
Mkangi believes that former Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho can step up and reinvigorate a struggling ODM.
“Joho can be a viable choice because he is the deputy party leader and comes from outside the Nyanza region.
“There is a general feeling from Kenyans that the party is domiciled in Nyanza and Joho can give it a national outlook,” he remarked.
Oloo, however, argued that Joho’s time at the party was up, and when the party implodes, he will fade out with the rest of the old guards.
Wycliffe Oparanya
Mkangi explained that the former Kakamega governor, like Hassan Joho, may contest for the top seat considering his seniority in ODM.
Countering, Oloo remarked, “The old guards are quickly losing to the young Turks and the youthful leaders will push out the senior politicians.”
“The likes of Joho and Oparanya will likely move towards the establishment because they are not willing to take risks,” he added.
Junet Mohammed
According to Mkangi, Suna East MP Junet Mohammed would add youthful energy to the party.
“Junet has shown unwavering loyalty to the party and Raila Odinga, and although he is from Nyanza, he has some outstanding qualities like experience and youthful energy,” he explained.
Oloo, however, does not see Junet’s role in the future of ODM or its possible reincarnation party.
“When ODM revolution happens, Junet and other senior leaders in the party will be casualties,” he explained.
Babu Owino
Oloo endorsed the Embakasi East MP as the future of the party and its future breakaway formations.
“Babu Owino is currently popular because of his nature of politics and the nature of Kenyan politics in general.
“Politics does not want establishment or status quo, it needs disruption in order for a new formation to happen and Babu Owino is the perfect candidate for that,” he gave Owino a glowing recommendation.
According to Oloo, Babu Owino has the needed radical opinion and is willing to take on the establishment.
“Babu Owino is the new face of the new revolution that is happening in ODM and he is the right candidate for the party’s reincarnation and posterity,” he added.
