Kenya’s economy is set to be negatively affected as the United States introduces reciprocal tariffs on eight countries within the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA).
This will particularly affect Kenya’s exports of textiles to the US, as COMESA has revealed that these will be relatively expensive in the US market, which could lead to a reduction in trade volumes.
In 2024, the value of Kenya's apparel exports to the US was $470 million (about Ksh60 billion). These exports amounted to 116 million pieces.
This represented a 19.2 per cent increase in value from 2023, when exports were worth $50.8 billion (Ksh50.8 billion), as well as an increase in volume from 97.3 million pieces.
In its recent policy brief titled “Implications of the US Tariff on COMESA: A Game Theoretic Approach to Trade Negotiations” compiled by the Division of Trade and Customs at the COMESA Secretariat, the 21-member bloc said while the US is not a primary trading partner for the COMESA region, its increased tariffs are poised to create major supply and demand shocks across member states.
The resulting high production costs and consumer prices in the US would likely contract its economy and further depress demand for exports from COMESA countries.
As per COMESA, Trump's imposition of fresh tariffs on Africa would lead to eight of its member states encountering significant trade challenges, limiting economic growth.
The affected countries include the Democratic Republic of Congo: 11 percent, Libya: 31 percent, Madagascar: 47 per cent, Malawi: 17 per cent, Mauritius: 40 per cent, Tunisia: 28 per cent, Zambia: 17 per cent, and Zimbabwe: 18 per cent.
The resulting high production costs and consumer prices in the US would likely contract its economy and further depress demand for exports from COMESA countries.
The exports had previously been exempt from tariffs under the Africa Growth Opportunities Act (AGOA), amounting to a total value of Ksh109.7 billion ($784 million).
“The new tariffs posed by the US represent a stark departure from AGOA’s intent, which was originally advocated by the US government itself,” said COMESA.
“The uncertainty around AGOA raises concerns that these tariff policies may result in substantial production cuts and massive job losses across African economies,” it added.
Trump had imposed a ten per cent baseline tariff on all Kenyan exports in April 2025, and went on to retain the same tariff after consultations between the Kenyan and US governments.
