MoH Prepares For 200 New Covid-19 Cases Daily From August

  •  Government Spokesman Cyrus Oguna (left), Acting Ministry of Health Director-General Patrick Amoth (centre) and Health CS Mutahi Kagwe (right) during a press conference at the ministry’s headquarters in Nairobi on March 30, 2020.
    Government Spokesman Cyrus Oguna (left), Acting Ministry of Health Director-General Patrick Amoth (centre) and Health CS Mutahi Kagwe (right) during a press conference at the ministry’s headquarters in Nairobi on March 30, 2020.
    The Standard
  • Ministry of Health on Thursday, May 21, projected the country would hit its Covid-19 peak in August or September where a daily report of at least 200 positive cases will be expected.

    This was revealed by Health acting Director-General Patrick Amoth who was speaking at  Afya House in the daily Covid-19 briefing.

    "We project now, our peak will be around August-September in which case, we will be reporting about 200 plus cases per day, that is if we continue with the measures and interventions that we have put in place today.

    An image of Patrick Amoth
    Ministry of Health acting Director-General Dr. Patrick Amoth speaking to the media at Afya House.
    The Standard

    "Remember, modelling keeps on changing based on variables that you input and our wish is to continue with the measures that we have put in place which has made it possible to have a smoother curve, therefore, our health system has not been overrun," explained Amoth.

    The DG noted that initially when they announced of the peak in April, it was a report of a worst-case scenario assuming that the ministry did not take precautions.

    The measures enforced by the National Emergency Response Committee on Coronavirus (NERCC) included the closure of schools, announcement of the dusk-to-dawn curfew, and the cessation of movement in and out of Nairobi, Mombasa, Kilifi and Kwale.

    The DG lauded restaurant owners who complied with the strict guidelines set for their reopening as no spike in cases were reported as a result of their resumption of business. 

    On Monday, March 31, Patrick Amoth, stated that Kenya was likely to have 10,000 Covid-19 cases by the end of April.

    Amoth noted that the numbers projected for April were as a result of mathematical modelling which was based on four parameters.

    The first was the susceptibility to getting the infection, the second was based on the people who had been exposed and were incubating it.

    The third consideration on how the figures were met was how infectious it was and the last was on those that had recovered or had been taken into quarantine.

    The country on Thursday, May 21 recorded its highest number of Covid-19 positive cases since the disease was first reported on Friday, March 13.