The Handshake of 2018 between President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga ignited a series of political changes in the country that left the opposition in question.
Experts observed that with the handshake, the ODM party was no longer in the opposition as their leader had agreed to work with the President -- an arrangement that led to the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI).
Wiper's alliance with Jubilee
In the spirit of cooperation, the Wiper party led by two-time running mate Kalonzo Musyoka on May 22, announced that the party's NEC had given him a green light to form a cooperation agreement with the ruling party.Makueni MP Daniel Maanzo speaking at an event in 2019.
"This is just the starting point for when we will form a coalition and eventually along the way we shall include other NASA parties in the agreement," he stated disclosing that no timelines had been set for the formation of the coalition.
Whereas the position of the two big parties in the National Super Alliance (NASA) coalition- that is ODM and Wiper is known when it comes to working with Jubilee - The positions of other member parties - Ford Kenya, Amani National Congress (ANC), Muungano Party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) remains unknown.
Which begs the question...Could this be Jubilee's strategy to weaken the NASA coalition?
Dissolution of NASA
According to ANC Secretary-General and political analyst Barrack Muluka, It will take the exit of three-member parties for the coalition to be disbanded.ANC Secretary-General Barrack Muluka
"The NASA coalition agreement states if three-member parties exit then the coalition ceases to exist," he explained to Kenyans.co.ke.
Already with more than three parties talking of a possible coalition with the Jubilee party, the fate of NASA is all but assured.
Amani National Congress (ANC)
ANC appears to be holding firm to its position as the opposition led by Musalia Mudavadi.
The party's Secretary-General Barrack Muluka stated that it was not in the party's plan to form an alliance with Jubilee.
"ANC will not be joining Jubilee because we don't know what purpose the coalition will serve, maybe just some selfish interest of a few people," he explained.
ODM's Still Here
Even though the ODM party has publicly supported Uhuru's agenda, the party will not be merging with Jubilee, that's according to the party officials.
ODM spokesperson Philip Etale, maintained to Kenyans.co.ke that there had never been a time that the party ever considered a merger with any other party given that it still enjoyed a solid support base across the country.
"ODM is too strong. Why would we consider a merger? ODM has structures across the country. We are the only functional party across the country. Go to the Registrar of Political Parties and she will attest to that," he stated.ODM Party Leader Raila Odinga with ODM Communication Director Philip Etale. Photo undated.
CCM's One foot Out the Door
Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) leader and former Bomet governor Isaac Ruto recently resurfaced and held a meeting with President Uhuru Kenyatta. Though shrouded in secrecy it was clear that the seasoned politician was cooking up an agreement with the party as it was later revealed.
Simba Guleid, a CCM national official and the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the Frontier Counties Development Council (FCDC), revealed that they resolved to enter into a post-election coalition agreement with the ruling Jubilee Party.
"The leadership of the Chama Cha Mashinani (CCM), Isaac Ruto and Zakayo Cheruiyot (former MP) and the NEC have jointly resolved to form a post-election coalition agreement with the Jubilee Party to be deposited with the Registrar of Political Parties for formal signing soon," Guleid stated.Former Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto attending a past meeting.Daily Nation
Only Thing Stopping Exit from NASA
Mudavadi stated that no party in the NASA coalition could form a coalition with other parties because none of the member parties had officially exited the pact.
"The NASA coalition is still in play. Any party in the NASA coalition can only enter into another coalition if it resigns," he explained adding that there had not seen any official communication by the member parties signalling an exit.ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi speaks during the 15th Memorial Service of the late Vice President Kijana Wamalwa in Kitale on August 23, 2018.Daily Nation
Kalonzo in his address on Friday, May 23 stated that Wiper's Co-operation Agreement with Jubilee does not breach their agreements under the NASA Coalition.
Learning From Jubilee's Past
Jubilee is no stranger to forming coalitions as was the case in 2016. The party came to life after 12 political parties including Uhuru's The National Alliance (TNA), United Republican Party (URP) led by Deputy President William Ruto wound up to form the assemblage.President Uhuru Kenyatta (in red tie) with his Deputy William Ruto during the 2013 elections campaignsFile
What will happen after Coalition
Political analyst opines that Jubilee does not stand to gain much from these mergers with the NASA affiliate parties adding that these agreements are only propelled by political interests.
"In the end, with all the parties leaving, NASA will die. But as much as it may seem that these mergers will benefit Jubilee, the ruling party will also go down with what the leadership is doing currently," he explained.
Manyora stated that both coalitions will be killed and new ones born in time for the next election cycle.
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