A poll conducted by Chama Cha Kazi Party has ranked former Prime Minister, Raila Odinga, ahead of Deputy President William Ruto if an election was to be held today.
CCK party leader, Moses Kuria, shared the poll on his media pages on Tuesday, October 26. Kuria’s party projected the poll in two analyses.
The first scenario is a four-horse race, comprising of party leaders, Raila (ODM), Musalia Mudavadi (Amani National Congress), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) and DP Ruto, while the second scenario is a two-horse pitting Ruto against Raila.
In the four-horse race, Ruto was projected to lead with 6.3 million votes (40.97 per cent), Raila follows with 5.7 million (36.84 per cent), Mudavadi was third with 1.9 million votes (12.54 per cent) and Kalonzo was last with 1.5 million votes (9.65 per cent).
The total votes cast would be 15.5 million. Considering that none of the four candidates garnered the required 50 per cent plus one vote threshold necessary to be declared the winner, a run-off would ensue pitting Raila against Ruto.
In the run-off which Kuria’s party considered a two-horse race, Raila would beat Ruto after amassing 8.1 million votes (52.28 per cent) as compared to the DP’s 7.4 million votes (47.72 per cent).
The total number of votes cast still tallied at 15.5 million.
Raila was projected to win the following regions; Nairobi, Maasai, Kisii, Ukambani, Nyanza and Western.
Ruto took the lead in Mt Kenya, Rift Valley, Wajir, Turkana. The two leaders drew at the Coast with each talking 50 per cent of the votes cast.
Professor Peter Kagwanja, on Tuesday, October 26, stated that the election season was still shaping itself, and more would be witnessed in time.
“Don’t dance yourself out of the ring before the due time. The time is coming. This is bad timing for any deception and switching sides,” the political advisor and strategist stated in response to those claiming that the DP Ruto had made inroads and was ahead of other politicians in Mt Kenya.
"United Democratic Alliance (UDA) has been using people who are good in marketing, not necessarily with political gravitas, to sell their party,” he added.
Dr Barrack Muluka, however, argued that Ruto may or may not be in the lead for Mt Kenya votes but he currently is in a very formidable position.
In August 2021, Dr Masibo Lumala, a political analyst, specialist and consultant in Gender, Communication and Development, opined that the nullification of the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) would create a three-horse race, with Raila, Ruto and a One Kenya Alliance (OKA) candidate facing off at the ballot.
None of the OKA leaders, Mudavadi, Kalonzo, Moses Wetangula (Ford-Kenya) and Gideon Moi (KANU) would be willing to support Raila with no BBI, Lumala stated. He explained that BBI would have created more Executive positions for these leaders.
