The low voter turnout witnessed during the two phases of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) Voter registration drive poses a headache for 2022 presidential aspirants.
IEBC missed its target of registering 6 million new voters and rather settled for only 2,550,939 new voters. In 2022, the total number of voters stands at 22,162,362 (22 million voters) as compared to 2017’s 19,611,423 (19 million). This comes to about a national average of 13 per cent increase.
The top two presidential aspirants - Deputy President William Ruto of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Raila Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) under the Azimio la Umoja all rallied the youth to turn out in numbers.
Concerns, nonetheless, were raised over the low number of youth who enlisted despite the youthful generations especially in strongholds perceived to be under the grip of the two perennial rivals.
Mt Kenya, believed to have aligned with Ruto, recorded the lowest turnout as compared to other parts of the country. This is one of the regions that analysts believe will decide the presidential election.
However, it will be a make or break decider for Ruto who is counting on the huge turnout and overwhelming support that President Uhuru Kenyatta received in the 2017 General Election.
Mt Kenya in Numbers
In 2017, the total number of voters in the nine counties - Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyanga, Murang’a, Kiambu and Laikipia was 4,382,054.
This number increased by 391,599 only in 2022, tallying at 4,773,653 - a paltry 8.9 per cent increase - far below the national average of 13 per cent.
In 2022 Meru has 780,858 voters as compared to 2017's 702,480 an 11 per cent increase. Tharaka has 234,618 voters as compared to 2017's 213,154, a 10 per cent increase.
Embu has 337,627 voters as compared to 2017's 309,468, a 9.1 per cent rise. Nyandarua has 362,357 voters as compared to 2017's 335,634, an 7.96 per cent rise.
Nyeri has 492,046 voters as compared to 456,949, a 7.68% per cent increase. Kirinyaga has 378,580 voters as compared to 2017's 349,836, an 8.2% increase.
Murang'a has 628,416 voters as compared to 2017's 587,126, a 7 per cent rise. Kiambu has 1,293,309 voters as compared to 1180920, a 9.52 per cent increase. Laikipia has 265,842 voters as compared to 2017's 246,487, a 7.85 per cent rise.
Rift Valley in Numbers
Rift Valley has 12 counties, Baringo, Bomet, Elgeyo Marakwet, Kajiado, Kericho, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Samburu, Turkana, Uasin Gishu, West Pokot.
Ruto’s perceived strongholds include Baringo, Bomet, Elgeyo Marakwet, Kericho, Nandi and Uasin Gishu counties which recorded a better registration than the Mt Kenya counties.
In 2022, the region has 4,682,643 registered while in 2017 it had 4,063,659 voters. This is an increase of 618,984 voters, representing a 15.23 per cent rise.
In 2022 Ruto’s strongholds, Baringo, Bomet, Elgeyo Marakwet, Kericho, Nandi and Uasin Gishu counties have 2,216,865 voters while in 2017, they had 1,906,664 voters- an average of 16 per cent increase.
Baringo has 271,977 as compared to 2017's 232,258, a 17.10 per cent increase. Bomet has 370,399 voters as compared to 2017's 322,012 voters, a 15.03 per cent rise.
Elgeyo Marakwet has 211,352 voters while in 2017 it had 180,664, a 16.99 per cent rise. Kericho has 429,288 voters as compared to 2017's 375,668, a 14.27 per cent rise.
Uasin Gishu recorded 530,993 voters, a 17.98 per cent rise of 2017's 450,055. add NANDI HERE
Kajiado has 463,546 voters and in 2017 it had 411,193 - a 12.73 per cent increment. Nakuru has the largest number of voters at 1,050,367, a 10.61 per cent from 2017's 949,618.
Nakuru, Narok, Kajiado, Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu counties are considered as swing vote regions.
Narok has 397,618 voters as compared to 2017's 341,730, a 16.35 per cent rise, Samburu has 98,081 voters, an 18.47 per cent rise from 2017's 82,787.
Turkana has 241,583 voters, a 26.20 per cent rise of 2017's 191,435 voters. West Pokot got 214,583 voters, a 14.94 per cent rise of 2017's 180,232 voters.
In 2022, the swing areas - Nakuru, Narok, Kajiado, Turkana, West Pokot and Samburu - have 2,465,778 votes as compared to 2017’s 2,156,995 voters.
Nyanza and Western in Numbers
In 2022, these areas had 5,674,418 voters while in 2017 they recorded 4,954,769 voters, an increase of 14.52 per cent.
Kakamega has 841,139 voters as compared to 2017's 743,736, a 13.10 per cent rise. Vihiga has 304,755 voters, an 11.87 per cent rise from 2017's 272,409.
Bungoma has 644,233 voters as compared to 2017's 559,850, a 15.07 per cent increase.
Busia has 406,569 voters while in 2017 it had 351,048, a 15.82 per cent rise. Trans Nzoia has 395,741 voters as compared to 2017's 339,622, a 16.52 per cent increase.
Siaya has 518,056 voters, a 13.12 per cent increase from 2017's 457,953. Kisumu has 616,871 voters, a 14.40 per cent rise of 2017's 539,210.
Homabay has 537,108 voters as compared to 2017's 476,875, a 12.63 per cent. Migori has 454,954 voters, a 17.07 per cent rise from 2017's 388,633.
Kisii has 638,603 voters, a 16.84 per cent increase from 2017's 546,580. Nyamira has 316,389 voters, a 13.46 per cent increase from 2017's 278,853.
Coast in Numbers
The region has six counties, Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu and Taita Taveta.
They are perceived to be Raila’s strongholds lest for Kwale where the DP has made inroads.
In 2022, Coast counties have 1,953,528 voters as compared to 2017's 1,713,151. A 14.03 per cent increase.
Mombasa has 654,063 voters, a 12.73 per cent increase from 2017's 580,223.
Kwale has 320,782 voters, a 14.14 per cent increase from 2017's 281,041.
Kilifi has 582,631 voters, a 14.68 per cent from 2017's 508,068.
Tana River has 137,661 voters, 16.34 per cent from 2017's 118,327.
Lamu has the least numbers, 79,157 voters, as compared to 2017's 69,776, a 13.44 per cent increment.
Taita Taveta has 179,234 voters as compared to 2017's 155,716, a 15.10 per cent increment.
Lower Eastern in Numbers
This region is largely dominated by Raila but also supports Wiper party leader, Kalonzo Musyoka. The region has three counties, Kitui, Machakos and Makueni.
In 2022, Lower Eastern counties have 1,697,003 voters, a 12.09 per cent increase from 2017's 1,518,076.
Kitui has 532,267 voters, a 12.17 per cent rise from 2017's 474,512.
Machakos has 690,243 voters as compared to 2017's 620,254, an 11.28 per cent increase.
Makueni has 474,493 voters, a 12.09 per cent increase from 2017's 423,310.
North Eastern in Numbers
This is the region with the highest number of swing votes. The counties include Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Isiolo and Marsabit.
In 2022, North Eastern counties have 866,006 voters as compared to 2017's 718,940 -a 20.46 per cent rise.
Garissa has 207,435 voters, a 26.99 per cent increase from 2017's 163,350.
Wajir has 196,466 voters, a 20.60 per cent increase from 2017's 162,902. Mandera has 211,098 voters, a 20.19 per cent rise from 2017's 175,642.
Marsabit has 164,864 voters, a 16.34 per cent rise from 2017's 141,708. Isiolo has 86,143 voters, a 14.34 per cent increase from 2017's 75,338, a 14.34 per cent increment.
