Experts argued that the recent political undertones in Azimio la Umoja project a messy divorce, especially after the co-principals failed to capture the presidency in the hotly contested General Election.
Wiper leader, Kalonzo Musyoka, through his proxies, is seeking to succeed his boss, Raila Odinga, who was adamant that he is not yet ready to relinquish his role. On the other hand, reports on former President Uhuru Kenyatta angling for a peace deal with President William Ruto, are rife.
Speaking to Kenyans.co.ke, political analysts Martin Andati and Herman Manyora opined that former Prime Minister, Raila Odinga was at loggerheads, and would either support Kalonzo Musyoka or dump him.
However, governance expert Martin Andati argued that Kalonzo could not mount a serious political campaign or incapacitate Raila. According to Andati, Raila should continue offering Kalonzo a nonchalant shrug rather than bowing to the pressure of his whimpers.
“Kalonzo cannot copy Ruto. He has no financial muscle to go around the country as Ruto did for 10 years consistently. How will he sustain it? Ruto had the state machinery and capacity to crisscross the country. Kalonzo is challenged in this aspect,” he explained.
Further, Andati claimed that if Kalonzo bolts out of Azimio, the ODM Party leader Raila Odinga won’t feel the heat as many anticipate.
“Raila has a way of reinventing. He always comes up with something new. Even now, I am sure he is scheming something,” he stated.
Political Analyst Herman Manyora however, deemed it natural for Raila to support Kalonzo in a 'Kibaki Tosha' set-up. Kalonzo, he argued, was well suited to carry the former Prime Minister's legacy. Nonetheless, the endorsement depended on Kalonzo's efforts to prove that he can unseat Ruto in 2027.
“Raila must be willing and convinced by Kalonzo that he is a serious candidate, not only to him but also to his lieutenants like Wycliffe Oparanya and Hassan Joho,” he remarked.
Manyora stated that as much as Raila always evolved, it also came with impacts.
"Raila has always survived but with shares of impacts, but that never derailed him, from the Pentagon days when he had William Ruto, 2013, when Musalia Mudavadi and Ruto abandoned him for different political persuasions too," he remarked.
"Issues of age and energy are of concern but that can not derail Raila's ambition," he warned.
Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka set the ball rolling after declaring that he would be making a grand statement and charting his political future within the Azimio coalition.
Kalonzo, who vowed to use Raila's crowning moment as a stepping stone to his eventual rise as the next-in-line de facto Azimio leader, hoped to ride on their 2022 victory to contest for the presidency in 2027, a plan that was countered and thwarted by Ruto.
His quest for the Azimio throne was further buoyed by recent comments made by Kitui Senator Enoc Wambua, who maintained that he was best placed to battle with Kenya Kwanza for the country's top leadership.
"He is the best presidential candidate for the Azimio coalition in 2027 since he has the necessary experience and deserves the support of former President Uhuru Kenyatta and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, whom he has been loyal to," Wambua argued.
This move, compounded by Uhuru's dalliance to a peace proposal with Ruto, seems to leave Rila exposed and vulnerable.
On the Kikuyu Council of Elder's plan to have former president, Uhuru Kenyatta, shake hands with President Ruto, both Andati and Manyora stated that the move was inconsequential.
"Ruto is undoing Uhuru's efforts. From changing or scrapping of policies, and firing his predecessor's allies. It will be a tall order," Andati remarked.
On his part, Manyora revealed that even if Uhuru were to make peace with Ruto, it would not flinch Raila.
"Uhuru was with baba but that did not derail Ruto from becoming president, Ruto having Uhuru in his corner would not stop Raila whatsoever," he observed.
