The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) on Tuesday, May 16, revealed that El-Nino would extend to January 2024.
In a statement, the weatherman explained that El Nina, characterised by dry, sunny and warm weather, ended in March 2023.
The country experienced the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with El Nino starting in May 2023 between March and May, according to KMD.
“ENSO has been in the neutral phase since March and is expected to transit to El Nino between May and July.
“Model predictions and expert assessment indicate a moderate probability 60 per cent chance for the onset of El Nino during May-July 2023,” Kenya Met warned.
Kenya Met announced that the probability was expected to increase to 60-70 per cent during June-August and was highly likely with a chance of 70-80 per cent from July-through October 2023.
“El Niño conditions are expected to persist up to the (October to December) OND 2023 rainfall season and may extend to the November to January season,” the department warned of El Nino extending to 2024.
On how this would affect Kenyans, Kenya Met explained, “It is important to note that El Niño itself is not rain, but rather an effect that can impact weather patterns and lead to heavier-than-normal rainfall in East Africa.”
KMD advised the public to routinely seek advice in relevant sectors to minimise adverse weather impacts.
According to the weatherman, this will be the fourth El Nino to be experienced in the country since 1950.
The country experienced El Nino in 1985, 1997 and 2015, with the 1997 one recording the highest downpour to date.
The meteorological department noted that they were yet to ascertain if the 2023 El Nino would mirror 1997 in terms of heavy downpour.
“Kenya Meteorological Department is monitoring the situation and will be providing timely updates to the public,” the department assured the public.
