At least three out of 10 Kenyans believe ODM party leader Raila Odinga will support President William Ruto’s re-election bid in 2027, a recent poll by Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) Research has revealed.
The study, released on Wednesday September 24, stated that the data had been compiled between August and September 2025.
While Kenyans are divided on the role of the former Prime Minister with 32 percent agreeing with Odinga supporting Ruto, 23 percent still consider him the face of opposition and want him to join the 2027 race.
Another 17 percent believe that Odinga should rejoin the opposition and support another candidate, while 14 percent believe he will not be part of the 2027 contest as he will have retired from active politics.
“Kenyans are divided on Raila’s political future. While a majority expect him to align with Ruto, nearly half still see him anchoring the opposition - either directly or indirectly,” TIFA said.
“The divided opinion shows that Raila’s political brand is at a crossroads - long defined as the face of the opposition, his future role is now uncertain and lacks clarity,” it added.
Party Popularity
In terms of party popularity, UDA takes the lead with 16 percent, followed by ODM at 13 percent. DCP comes third place with 9 percent.
According to the survey, Kenyans from Northern Kenya lead in support of the broad-based government with 61 percent, followed by Central Rift Valley at 45 percent and Nyanza at 34 percent.
However, the broad-based government is the least supported in Mt Kenya, with 11 percent, and in the Lower Eastern regions, with 17 percent.
According to the poll, 48 percent of Kenyans have no confidence in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), citing political interference, lack of trust and corruption Only 18 percent expressed confidence in the commission ahead of the 2027 polls.
The data released showed that only four in ten Kenyans believed that ethnic communities had a recognised leader who provided guidance on political and public issues.
The report noted that, although analysts often portray Kenyans as being heavily influenced by their ethnic leaders, this is inaccurate.
"Not even a majority acknowledge that their community has a leader," part of the report reads.
