Poll Shows Fred Matiang'i Is Ruto's Closest Challenger in 2027 Presidential Race

A collage of President William Ruto (left) and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua (left).
A collage of President William Ruto (left) and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua (left).
Photo
Kenyans.co.ke

Jubilee party presidential candidate Fred Matiang'i has emerged as the closest threat to President Ruto in the upcoming 2027 general elections, if a recent poll by Infotrak is anything to go by.

Infotrak's end year polls released on Sunday, December 28, revealed that while President Ruto still commanded significant support for his reelection, only Fred Matiang'i could come close to him, raising questions about whether the united opposition would trust Matiang'i with the mandate to face Ruto in 2027.

According to the polls, conducted between December 19 and December 20, if elections were held today, Ruto would still emerge victorious with 28 per cent, followed by Matiang'i at 13 per cent.

Kalonzo Musyoka came in third with 12 per cent, while Rigathi Gachagua, Matha Karua, and David Maraga, all presidential hopefuls, got five and two per cent respectively. 31 per cent of Kenyans remained undecided. 

Fred Matiangi
Former CS Fred Matiang'i speaking to Thika Town residents on Sunday, June 29, 2025.
Photo
Gathoni Wamuchomba

Despite these figures, the poll highlights worrying voter uncertainty, with 31 per cent of Kenyans still undecided and another four per cent choosing not to disclose their preferred presidential candidate, 20 months to the general elections.

According to the polls, undecided Kenyans declined from the previous 43 per cent to 29 per cent, showing that Mount Kenya and Western regions topped the undecided list with 36 and 35 per cent respectively.

In terms of political formations, the poll suggests that Ruto's regime still holds a solid advantage, with 32 per cent of Kenyans feeling closest to the Kenya Kwanza government, while 22 per cent align with the United opposition spearheaded by Gachagua and his cohort. 

The broad-based arrangement commanded support mainly from the north eastern, rift valley, nyanza, and western regions, while the united opposition's support bases were in the eastern and central regions.

Interestingly, the fairly new outfit dubbed Kenya Moja Alliance, led by Babu Owino, Senator Edwin Sifuna and Githunguri Member of Parliament Gathoni Wamuchomba, earned the confidence of 17 per cent of respondents. 

Babu Owino also featured in the presidential polls, coming fourth with a solid seven per cent support, beating Gachagua, Karua and Maraga.

ODM Popularity Poll 

The polls also featured interesting data on the politics surrounding the Orange Democratic Movement party, with a large chunk of respondents preferring Babu Owino to take over from deceased former party leader Raila Odinga. 

Babu was also the most preferred as the next kingpin of not only the Luo community but also a significant base that supported the former Prime Minister. Babu commanded 33 per cent support, followed by ODM party leader Oburu Oginga with 10 per cent, while Homabay governor Gladys Wanga came third with seven per cent.

James Orengo commanded four per cent, while Energy Cabinet Secretary Opiyo Wandayi and Interior PS Raymond Omollo both commanded two per cent of the polls. Several others, including Winnie Odinga, John Mbadi, Anyang Nyong'o and Miguna Miguna, commanded a percentage each.

Embakasi East MP Babu Owino speaking at a past event
Embakasi East MP Babu Owino speaking in Embakasi Constituency in September 2022.
Photo
Babu Owino