Political Analyst Prof Mutahi Ngunyi and his team (Fort Hall School of Government) has revealed the three possible outcomes in next week's General Election.
In his weekly show the Fifth Estate, the analyst focused on the Presidential tally and gave three hypothesis based on statistical simulations, zero sum game, and no results.
1. Statistical simulations
Based on this hypothesis, the Fort Hall School of Government noted that President Uhuru Kenyatta will win because "incumbent Presidents in Africa do not lose elections unlesss they are incompetent and Uhuru is not".
The team noted that President Kenyatta had a high starting point as compared to Opposition Leader Raila Odinga.
The group adds the total tally from the Gikuyu, Embu, and Meru (GEMA) and the Kalenjin community which they put at 7.9 Million votes (Uhuru's starting point) against a total tally of Nyanza, Luhya and the Kamba which they put at 6.9 Million (Raila's starting point).
According to this hypothesis, President Kenyatta will retain his seat.
2. Zero sum game
In this hypothesis, the analysts note that President Kenyatta will not win and Raila will lose.
The zero sum game according to the team will guarantee Uhuru a second term.
According to the team, the zero sum game will lead to a coalition government where President Kenyatta will invite NASA Co-principals; Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi, and Moses Wetangula to his government leaving out Mr Odinga in "the cold".
3. No result
According to this theory, there will be a stalemate leading to a run-off.
The Fort Hall School of Government concluded by noting that if President Kenyatta wins he must unite the country by having Musyoka, Mudavadi, and Wetangula in his government as Prime Minister and the two deputies respectively.
Here is the video:
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