A coalition between Amani National Congress leader Musalia Mudavadi and Deputy President William Ruto will be dead on arrival, University of Nairobi don and political scientist Herman Manyora has warned.
The analyst through his YouTube channel on Saturday, May 30, argued that there would be a huge imbalance in the union as both Mudavadi and Ruto were aiming for the presidency and none could deputise the other.
"Ruto is smart and is the current DP but in terms of politics, Mudavadi is senior. If the constitution won't be amended, then Ruto won't desire to be deputised again after 10 years under Uhuru," Manyora stated.
For Mudavadi, Manyora highlighted, even if the constitution is amended, the only post he can be accorded in a Ruto government would be the Prime Minister post, which won't augur well with his fanbase.
"It would take time for people to understand the Prime Minister post. Remember in 2017, NASA wanted to offer him the Chief Minister role after ODM leader Raila Odinga ascends to power and the role sparked debate," the UoN don analysed.
Another reason why the union would fail is hinged on the Luhya community rejecting another Deputy President seat after having Moody Awori, Kijana Wamalwa and Mudavadi himself serve in such positions.
"However, supposedly Ruto is cornered and endorses Mudavadi, Mudavadi Tosha, will that be the ANC leader's moment. No. It will be difficult for him to compete against the handshake team led by President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga.
"That handshake team is so formidable and it will take Ruto only to offer competition. Mudavadi is loved across the country but I am yet to see a corner of this country that sees Mudavadi as a safe pair of hands," the lecturer stated.
He added that Mudavadi's chances would be high if he united with Odinga and joined the BBI team, as he had done earlier during the Bukhungu BBI rally on January 18.
Another point for Mudavadi to note was desisting from opposing Francis Atwoli, Central Organisation Trade Union (COTU) Secretary-General and a Luhya leader who marshalled several leaders from Western to channel their 2022 path.
Mudavadi accused Atwoli of involvement in a plot that saw Moses Wetangula removed as Ford Kenya party leader.
"If Atwoli is able to pull that he is a Luhya leader and formidable, why won't Mudavadi listen to that. You can be made great from all sides but your greatness and moment won't come when you ignore Raila and Uhuru and chart your own path.
"The people around you are misadvising you. Being with Raila doesn't mean you are weak, he can make you great. Remember image is everything in politics. People will perceive you as being weak and speaking to the minor and political orphans only," Manyora added.
Kimili MP Didmus Barasa, on Thursday, May 28, was the bearer of the reports alleging that Mudavadi and Ruto were forming a 2022 coalition.
Video: YouTube/Manyora
{"preview_thumbnail":"/files/styles/video_embed_wysiwyg_preview/public/video_thumbnails/67nFqAL0dW8.jpg?itok=ErOyWl54","video_url":"","settings":{"responsive":1,"width":"854","height":"480","autoplay":0},"settings_summary":["Embedded Video (Responsive)."]}
