Raila Trails Ruto in Latest Popularity Poll - Report

Deputy President William Ruto (left) and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga (right) campaign in Nairobi and Nakuru respectively in January 2022
President William Ruto (left) and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga (right) campaign in Nairobi and Nakuru respectively in January 2022
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DPPS/Raila Odinga

Deputy President William Ruto is likely to win the General Election in the first round according to the latest poll carried out nationally by Intel Research Solutions (IRS).

According to the data released on Thursday, July 21, the DP was ranked as the most preferred presidential candidate with a 50.5 per cent approval rating compared to Raila Odinga's 44.2 per cent approval rating.

"Ruto is likely to manage a first round win against his competitor going by the data. Almost half of the respondents country wide would prefer William Ruto as their president today.

"Changes observed in this poll are slight increases for William Ruto and Raila Odinga and a slight drop in the undecided voter pool," read the IRIS poll.

Bar chart shows most preferred candidates in Kenya's Presidential race
Bar chart shows most preferred candidates in Kenya's Presidential race.
IRS

The report also showed that the DP leads in Mt Kenya by a wide margin compared to Raila.

In Mt Kenya East, 72.4 per cent of respondents preferred Ruto to just 22.6 per cent who sided with Raila while in Mt Kenya East, 70.9 per cent would vote for Ruto compared to 23.1 per cent who prefer the former Prime Minister.

In Mt Kenya Diaspora (Nakuru and Laikipia) The preference of voters is still aligned to voters in the larger central Kenya. The difference in support for the two candidates is 37.7%. Ruto leads with 65.7 per cent while Raila trails with 28.0 per cent.

In Mt Kenya. Wajackoya enjoys a support base oscillating around the 2 per cent figure while Agano Party's David Mwaure has 1.5 per cent support.

Nationally, Wajackoya has a backing from 1.9 per cent of the population while Mwaure has 1.1 per cent support base.

In Central Rift areas, Ruto maintained a landslide lead with 81.8 per cent of the support against Raila's 14.3 per cent. At the Coast, Raila, however, leads with 54.6 per cent against the DP at 40.2 per cent.

The report further showed that more female voters preferred Ruto's alliance with Rigathi Gachagua at 53.9 per cent against Raila's 40.9 per cent. In the male category, many prefer Ruto (48.4 per cent) to Raila's (46.9 per cent).

IRS polled 24,599 respondents across Kenya via the electronic database SMS broadcasting methodology.

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ODM leader Raila Odinga (left) with President William Ruto (right) at a funeral in Murang’a County in October 2018.
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