Kenya has found itself in a delicate political situation, with the two major political formations clashing and adopting uncompromising stances, leading to an ongoing impasse.
President William Ruto had initially shown reluctance to enter into any discussions with the opposition. However, in a surprising move, he extended an invitation to opposition leader Raila Odinga for a one-on-one meeting via a cryptic tweet, hinting at a potential willingness to engage in dialogue.
On the other side, the Azimio Coalition, has taken a firm stand, insisting on the involvement of a respected third-party mediator in any talks with President Ruto.
However, co-opting senior leaders from the East African region and the continent has faced challenges. Raila, in two separate interviews, claimed that Ruto frustrated Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu's efforts to mediate between the conflicting parties.
Raila later revealed that the Head of State also declined South African President Cyril Ramaphosa's offer to broker a truce.
Raila explicitly stated that President Suluhu was in Kenya on Ruto's invitation. Its easy to understand why the the two camps would settled on Suluhu. Dar es Salaam enjoys excellent diplomatic relations with Nairobi. The Tanzanian president is also a level-headed leader who has shown exemplary leadership during her time in office.
But why was Ramaphosa's name floated and why would Raila, who is heading to a potential meeting at a disadvantage, be interested in having the South African president at the negotiating table? Kenyans.co.ke takes a deep look at the situation.
Ruto Cunning Nature
Azimio la Umoja leaders have accused Ruto of being cunning and insincere in his calls for dialogue with his political nemesis.
Raila's close allies, including National Assembly Minority Leader Opiyo Wandayi, and Rarieda Member of Parliament, Otiende Amollo, have criticised Ruto for the manner in which he extended the olive branch to Raila. They questioned the genuineness of Ruto's intentions, especially since he chose to make the offer through his social media accounts, rather than through more formal channels. Raila Odinga himself shared the same sentiment and was skeptical about the sincerity of Ruto's outreach.
"The President is not being serious. If he wanted to meet with me he would not have sent an invite through social media.
"He knows my address and telephone number and everything. He is basically just playing games. That is like his public relations exercise," the Azimio leader stated in an interview with Al Jazeera.
Moreover, Azimio la Umoja expressed frustration with Ruto's team for their lack of commitment during Bipartisan talks. Ruto's team reportedly failed to act on previously agreed resolutions, such as pausing the recruitment of Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) commissioners, leading to the breakdown of the talks.
In April 2023, Raila called off the first round of anti-government protests after Ruto, during a live address to the nation, floated the idea of bipartisan parliamentary talks to end the stalemate.
Ramaphosa as Mediator
Interestingly, Ramaphosa, and Raila, have a shared history dating back to 2007. Ramaphosa was among the leaders chosen to mediate a truce between the former Prime Minister and former President, Mwai Kibaki (the late), in 2008, following the disputed 2007 presidential election.
However, Ramaphosa withdrew from the talks when Kibaki's side claimed he was too close to Raila, stating that effective mediation requires the confidence and full support of all parties involved.
"My experience is that you can only play that role effectively if you have the confidence and full support of those that you are involved with in the mediation process," Ramaphosa quipped.
At the time, the current South African president was a prominent businessman with experience in mediation. He had been involved in various negotiation deals. His recent role in mediating the Russia-Ukraine conflict enunciates his experience.
What Experts Say
Political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi opines that the war of words between the two political titans was merely a game of egos.
"How Raila is invited to meet Ruto is not important. Ruto told him he can meet him 'whenever he is available'. Raila should reply on Twitter that he is busy. But he is available to meet Ruto on Sunday at 3 am. Dear Babaman (Raila): this is not about the cost of living. It is about egos," the political scientist said in a tweet.
On his part, Ahmed Hashi, a decorated political scientist, added that the talks were necessary and called for former President Uhuru Kenyatta to be involved in the talks.
"Uhuru Kenyatta should also be in these talks because he is at the centre of the political problems of this country. The government needs to reconcile with both men," he stated.
