Opposition Chief Raila Odinga has severally threatened that he could boycott the upcoming August elections if appropriate measures to ensure a credible poll are not put in place.
In light of these threats, renowned political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi has hypothesised how Raila could either boycott the elections or interfere with the outcome to ensure he ascends into government.
In an opinion piece titled ICC for Raila? Decoding Uhuru and PEV Talk, Prof. Ngunyi expresses that the ODM Party leader could orchestrate a "constitutional or civilian coup".
“A constitutional or civilian coup is not illegal, it is just immoral. It is the work of political genius but an evil genius. If Raila will boycott elections then force another coalition government that is also political genius. However, such schemes are clever but costly,” he states.
He goes ahead to look into similar scenarios in South Sudan, Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo where leaders have boycotted elections and organised coups against themselves to remain in power.
“Raila is an engineer and knows how to misengineer things and make them malfunction. If he has studied those leaders, then he knows how to get to power by misengineering an election,” Ngunyi notes.
According to the political scientist, if Raila plunges the country into a Constitutional crisis, he will blame Uhuru for mismanaging the country, thus leading to a constitutional coup and force a caretaker government.
He notes that Odinga has been constantly frustrating the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) so as to stop or contaminate the August elections.
“If Raila loses the elections, he will claim it was not free and fair, as usual. As he told us on July 8, 2015, he will not go to court. What will he do?”, one of Ngunyi's students poses in the analysis, adding that the Opposition leader will demand for a grand coalition, which might be a clever move but costly in the long-run.
The political analyst, however, claims that President Uhuru Kenyatta is aware that Raila could mess up the upcoming polls.
“As a founding member of the Orange Democratic Movement, Uhuru understands Raila and knows he plans to stop or boycott the elections if he senses defeat.”
In the analysis, Ngunyi backdates to several occasions where the former Prime Minister has threatened to boycott elections, citing four instances in 2016 - on May 5th, May 22nd, July 12th and December 21.
Here is Mutahi Ngunyi's analysis:
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