A new analysis of the IEBC voter registration figures now show that the National Super Alliance (NASA) will win the August 8 Presidential election on condition that they record equal voter turnout as their Jubilee rivals.
The Standard newspaper has analysed the figures and hypothesized that if all counties had a 100 percent voter turnout, NASA would record a win with 9.5 million votes against 8.5 million from the Jubilee side.
Given that the total number of registered voters stands at around 19.5 million, a NASA win would be followed by a run-off as it would fall short of attaining 50% plus one vote as stipulated in the Constitution.
The analysis, however, notes that it is not possible to have such a turnout but adds that if the voter turnout is uniform across the counties, NASA will again have a lead but a run-off will still happen.
The Standard reported that the NASA strongholds account for 21 counties while Jubilee has 19. The other seven are considered swing votes. They go ahead to note that if voter turnout mirrors the 2013 election, then Jubilee will emerge the winner given that their strongholds recorded higher turnout that those in the NASA regions.
However, the hypothesis will be affected by a number of other factors including the impact of political realignments witnessed since 2013, the choice of NASA's presidential candidate as well as to what extent the electorate will be swayed by the manifestos of the competing parties.
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