The number of Kenyans supporting the broad-based government that was initiated following a power-sharing agreement between President William Ruto and the late former ODM party leader Raila Odinga has doubled in six months, a new survey by TIFA has revealed.
According to the survey conducted by TIFA from November 10 to 17 this year, the broad-based government support rose from the 22 per cent it enjoyed in May this year to 44 per cent in November, even as the country remains sharply divided on the matter.
The survey, which was conducted through face-to-face interviews and household visits, shows that although support for the Broad-Based Government (BBG) has risen, opposition remains substantial at 48 per cent, pointing to the direction that the coalition has not yet embraced wholesale support.
The increase in support appears to reflect a mixture of political realignments, recent national developments, and possible sympathy reactions following Raila’s unexpected passing in October, according to TIFA.
The broad-based government emerged last year when President Ruto launched an Africa-wide campaign supporting Raila Odinga's bid to become African Union Commission Chairman.
The two leaders subsequently announced a partnership that effectively neutralised ODM's role as the official parliamentary Opposition. Following Odinga's defeat in the AU race in February, President Ruto appointed several senior ODM elected leaders to Cabinet positions.
However, the survey was conducted just weeks after Odinga’s passing, a moment that sent shockwaves throughout the nation and intensified internal anxieties, especially within ODM, about succession, electoral strategy, and the approaching 2027 presidential race.
Despite the changing attitudes toward the coalition, most Kenyans remain deeply pessimistic about the country’s general trajectory.
''With regard to the country’s perceived direction, The salience of political alignment is clear, in that while among those who support the BBG only half (51 per cent) consider it to be “wrong”, this negative view is held among well over three-quarters (84 per cent) of those who say they oppose it,'' the report read in part.
''Far more of those who have no (or declined to express any) opinion about the BBG are also largely negative about Kenya’s direction, with more than five times as many holding a negative view as those with a positive one about this (60 vs. 11 per cent).''
TIFA said that 68 per cent believe Kenya is heading in the wrong direction, up sharply over time, and dissatisfaction is particularly acute in Mt Kenya, signaling cracks within a historically influential political bloc.
The survey also highlighted that economic pressures remain the single biggest driver of public sentiment. Nearly two-thirds of respondents reported their household economic situation has worsened since the 2022 election, with only modest improvement for a small minority.
Interestingly, TIFA reported a correlation between economic self-assessment and attitudes toward the BBG.
Those who say their personal finances have improved are more likely to support the coalition, while those reporting deterioration overwhelmingly oppose it, according to the report published on Thursday, December 18.
This suggests that support for the power-sharing arrangement is tied not only to political alignment but also to perceived lived economic outcomes.
Further reinforcing the public’s economic anxiety, the survey shows that unemployment, cost of living, and inflation are overwhelmingly cited as Kenya’s most serious problems, far surpassing issues like graft, leadership, and security.
