Raila's Options As Ruto Alliance Looms - Experts

ODM leader Raila Odinga (left) with President William Ruto (right) at a funeral in Murang’a County in October 2018.

Renowned German physicist Albert Einstein once said that politics is more difficult than physics. 

The adage seems plausible in the Orange Democratic Movement leader Raila Odinga's playbook as he mulls a possible alliance with his rival Deputy President William Ruto while at the same time balancing his relationship with his handshake partner, President Uhuru Kenyatta.

With the 2022 General elections beckoning alliances and changes in allegiance cannot be ruled out in the chess game that is politics.

Speaking to Kenyans.co.ke, political analysts delved deeper into the matter and weighed in on Raila's options as the Presidential elections approach.

President Uhuru Kenyatta addresses the nation at the Bomas of Kenya on Monday, October 26, 2020

Political analyst and TV pundit Martin Andati noted that a Raila-Ruto alliance may look good on paper but may not marshall the requisite numbers.

"If they agreed, both of them cannot get the numbers. The two leaders would struggle to get 5 million votes come 2022 elections," he stated.

Further, he revealed that Raila's best bet would be to side with his former counterparts in the NASA coalition.

"His play would be to negotiate with One Kenya Alliance using his confidant Siaya senator James Orengo. If he succeeds, then Raila can call the shots," Andati stated.

However, political analyst Jane Thuo is of the opinion that the former PM's best option would be to take a political stance and stand by it.

"If he sticks with either Uhuru or Ruto, he can survive in the political arena but if he's dillydallying between the two, he will lose credibility among Kenyans. Gone are the days when he was full of vigour so his best option would be to stick with one choice," she stated.

Further, she pointed out the intrigues surrounding the political arena stating that an unlikely candidate might also appear in the competition for the top seat.

"Right now the Kenyan politics is very fluid, an unlikely candidate might clinch the Presidential seat," Thuo stated.

Recently, the Jubilee camp had expressed concerns regarding the possible alliance between the two leaders.

Bahati MP Kimani Ngunjiri dispelled the rumours affirming that United Democratic Alliance would remain steadfast in its quest for the top seat.

"The Deputy President stated that the national parties remaining is UDA and ODM, Ruto did not say that there was a possible coalition," he stated.

Jubilee vice party chairman David Murathe however said that the only way they would back a likely alliance is if the ODM leader would be the flag bearer in the 2022 elections.

Jubilee Vice Chairperson David Murathe speaking to the press in a past briefing
Jubilee Vice Chairperson David Murathe speaking to the press in a past briefing