A final poll released by Infotrak on Wednesday evening, August 4, shows Azimio La Umoja presidential flagbearer, Raila Odinga, would win in at least 24 counties if elections were held today.
The poll showed that if the voter turnout stood at 99 per cent, Raila would win majority of the 10.8 million votes in the 24 counties.
Infotrak explained that if Raila could get half of the undecided votes, he would win the election in round one with a 52 per cent, an equivalent of 11.4 million votes.
The United Democratic Alliance(UDA) ticket fronting Deputy President William Ruto and Rigathi Gachagua is leading in 17 counties that have 9.3 million registered voters.
The poll indicated that if the voter turnout stood at 99 per cent, Ruto would get the majority of the 9.3 million votes in those counties.
The poll went ahead to show that even if Ruto won 100 per cent of the undecided votes, he would still not clinch the presidency as he would not hit the 50 per cent plus one vote.
The poll mirrors a separate one conducted by the TIFA which indicated that the Azimio La Umoja's presidential candidate would win the election with 53 per cent of the votes cast.
In the poll, DP Ruto would get 45 per cent of the total votes. The poll results were generated from respondents who affirmed they would participate in the August 9 elections.
The poll also indicated that Raila's popularity increased from 49 to 53 per cent and while Ruto's grew from 41 to 45 per cent in a previous poll that included undecided voters.
TIFA noted that the outcome of the election depends on voter turnout and this cannot be predicted by the survey.
Speaking during an interview on Citizen TV, economist David Ndii differed with the polls and argued that Raila had lost ground in his former Western and Ukambani strongholds.
Ndii argued that Raila's refusal to pick Wiper party leader, Kalonzo Musyoka, as running mate had dented his popularity, further noting that the ODM leader had not reached the 30 per cent threshold he needs in the region to clinch the presidency.
"Raila’s path to victory is to maintain his strongholds and gain in Mount Kenya. He needs to gain the 7 per cent he lost in the last two elections. He also needs to gain the ground he has lost," Ndii noted.
