A new survey indicates that Western Kenya continues to be a hotly contested political battleground, despite the alliance between the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
According to an Infotrak study released on January 8, 2026, ODM maintains a narrow lead over UDA in the Western region, with 25 percent support compared to UDA's 20 percent.
The survey comes as the region prepares for the 2027 general elections amid significant political realignments.
ODM has been a dominant force in Western Kenya for nearly two decades, primarily through its ability to forge broad-based coalitions and advocacy for devolution.
The party's influence in the "Mulembe Nation" dates back to the 2007 breakthrough when it secured 99 parliamentary seats and courted the Luhya community with promises of power-sharing.
In 2013, running under the CORD coalition, Raila Odinga secured 62.2 per cent of the vote in the Western Province, outperforming the homegrown candidate , who received 29.1 per cent.
The 2017 NASA Coalition further strengthened ODM's regional grip, with the party securing approximately 81 per cent of the Western vote alongside local leaders.
However, the party now faces unprecedented challenges following Odinga's death and recent high-profile defections.
On December 31, 2025, former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya announced his intent to depart from ODM, urging the "Mulembe Nation to unite under ."
The Infotrak study highlights that, despite national-level "broad-based" cooperation between UDA and ODM, local dominance remains a contested terrain.
ODM has set a June 2026 deadline to decide whether to support the current government or chart an independent path for 2027.
The Democratic Action Party (DAP-K), led by Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa and his Deputy, Trans-Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, is growing in dominance in the region, posing a threat to ODM.
Critics have noted that without a unifying figure like Odinga, the party risks losing its traditional dominance to local rivals.
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