As the Jubilee Party carries out a purge against legislators perceived to be fighting President Uhuru Kenyatta's agenda, speculation is rife on where the axe will fall next.
Already, Elgeyo Marakwet Senator Kipchumba Murkomen and his Nakuru Counterpart Susan Kihika have been ejected from their posts as Majority Leader and Majority Whip respectively. Five nominated senators, Falhada Dekow, Waqo Naomi Jillo, Prengei Victor, Mary Yiane and Millicent Omanga could lose their seats after the party's Secretary General Raphael Tuju announced that it had kickstarted the process of expelling them.
The message is clear from the party's official, "shape up or ship out" and after the Senate, the cleaning up is now focussed on the National Assembly, as confirmed by Tuju on Wednesday, May 13.
"Yes, it is headed there (National Assembly), but we are still monitoring the behaviour of the leaders. We will not tolerate deviant behaviour," Tuju stated.
The big question that stands now is whether National Assembly Majority Leader Aden Duale will face the same fate as Murkomen.
The Garissa Town MP was brought to the Jubilee Party under the United Republican Party (URP) by Deputy President William Ruto and has been a major campaigner for the party's agenda in the parliament.
According to political analyst Herman Manyora, the majority leader might just be spared in the current purge by the ruling party.
"He hasn't come out strongly for either of the factions (Kieleweke or Tangatanga) which has proved a smart move and may see him survive," the analyst told Kenyans.co.ke.
Manyora opined that after the changes in the Senate, other leaders will fall in line with the party agenda and speak with one voice noting that Kikuyu MP, Kimani Ichung'wah (Budget and Appropriations Committee chair), Mumias East MP Benjamin Washiali (Majority Whip) and Nominated MP Cecily Mbarire (Deputy Majority Chief Whip) may be eject from the seats.
"For Duale, what he has to do now is not only support the president but actually facilitate the removal of the 'rebels' from the positions of power in Parliament. It will happen the same way Senate Speaker Ken Lusaka was made to declare the changes official," he conveyed.
In the event, Duale is ejected, will he still remain relevant? Nafula Kisiangani, a political analyst, is of the idea that he will because, for politicians, relevance is derived from the support of the people in their backyard.
"Even if he is removed, he will still have the people's support and therefore still have some sway. What he may lose is the powers and privileges that come with the majority leader post," the Development Practitioner explained.
Duale has survived moves to eject him from the majority leader seat in the past. In 2015, Kieni MP Kanini Kega drafted a censure motion against Duale following the killing of 12 quarry workers who hailed from Nyeri in a terrorist attack in Mandera.
Duale, however, quashed the threat by mobilising MPs from the Rift Valley to shoot down the intended motion, arguing that it would create animosity within the Jubilee Party.
This time around though, such a move may not work in his favour as was the case for Murkomen who appeared to have the numbers but was still ousted from the seat.
