In what had initially looked like a two-horse race, of course crowded with tens of donkeys seemingly desperate only for attention, both Deputy President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga looked like clear front runners.
But last Friday's sudden death of the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) at the Court of Appeal dealt a major blow to Raila's chances of succeeding President Uhuru Kenyatta, placing Ruto, believed to be the front runner, solidly ahead of the park.
But as expected, Raila remains bullish, saying he is not shaken and will soldier on.
"Let people stop belabouring the Court of Appeal verdict on BBI and focus on our 2022 Azimio La Umoja movement," he said on Saturday in Bondo, while declaring that he will run for president.
The announcement, which had all along been put on ice, awaiting the BBI outcome, was low-key, without the expected fanfare and Va-va-voom.
Prior to the landmark judgment, mainstream consensus among multiple political analysts was that for Raila it was either the success of BBI or burst.
Unfortunately for him, poop has hit the fun! All the while, Ruto is basking in the glory, with the hustler movement now emboldened.
"Kenya is governed by the rule of law, and not the rule of men," said Ruto after the judgment, while praising the Judiciary independence.
Multiple pundits are of the opinion that Raila's cookie is crumbling, one region at a time. The coast went. Think of the Msambweni litmus test. Western, Eastern... name them.
Mount Kenya leaders, allied to President Uhuru Kenyatta who had been rooting for a Raila presidency are now backtracking from that endorsement.
"We have not guaranteed anyone our support. We will have our own candidate," declared Kirinyaga County governor Anne Waiguru, as she read the statement, while distancing herself and fellow leaders allied to Kieleweke from Raila candidacy.
Governance expert and political analyst, Charles Kipkulei says the BBI debacle has complicated Raila's arithmetic and thrown his plans for a broad-based coalition in jeopardy.
"The BBI was Raila's main bargaining chip among his would-be coalition partners. First, the loss has significantly diminished his relevance and approval among President Kenyatta's men," says Kipkulei, adding that to some now Raila has outlived his usefulness and plans could be underway on how to cut links with him.
To some people, without BBI, the former Prime Minister has no bargaining power and is in fact considered a liability.
"Some sweeteners in the BBI bill, like the new constituencies were specific bait for populous Mount Kenya region," says Kipkulei.
He argues that without BBI and the sweeteners, Raila has no solid message that can resonate well with the masses outside his traditional base.
"Remember time is running out, and he is running against a candidate who seems well organized. Complete with a solid hustler message that is resonating well with the masses," says Kipkulei.
Raila's reform agenda, peace and unity message and promise to fight graft do not seem to be selling. He is accused of having flip-flopped from push for rural economy, a functional civil service, made in Kenya... but none seem to be sticking.
Seemingly, Raila had all his eggs in one basket: the BBI. His partner in crime, President Kenyatta seems to be on a losing streak, and does not seem to have a solid plan B to help Raila succeed him, after BBI flopped.
Political analyst Peter Wanyonyi opines that Uhuru is now a lame duck and those he seems to remote control will soon start ignoring him, to fight "project" tag.
Already, reports have it that the OKA leaders are getting uncomfortable with the regular summons and now feel they are being undermined and intimidated.
"All his attempts to tame his deputy seem to be flopping and BBI was his last hope. From courts overturning his decision on CAS, to quashed Executive Orders..." says Wanyonyi, warning that Uhuru now cuts the image of a serial loser and his endorsement of Raila might be costly.
Fact that they are up against a front runner DP Ruto who is slowly but surely extricating himself from baggage of incumbency, does not help matters.
Wanyonyi says the BBI loss not only weakened Raila, but it also gave his would-be coalition juniors some power to easily manipulate him and even possibly force him to support one of them.
"Former National Super Alliance chiefs seem to have successfully isolated Raila. With BBI loss, he goes to the negotiating table very vulnerable than them. Unlike it would have been, had the BBI gone through happened. He is 'damaged goods', whose value has significantly reduced," says Wanyonyi.
Wanyonyi says, even if Raila vies, he is likely to end up with a weaker coalition, with some of his former Nasa chiefs possibly joining Ruto.
"Some of these former Nasa chiefs are cowards and are scared of State persecution but might join Ruto when it is convenient. Right now, such a move might attract DCI or KRA," Wanyonyi says.
But this is not the first time Raila has looked politically weak or cornered. Like the phoenix, he always rises from the ashes and surprises critics. His foot soldiers believe that will be the case, following this BBI setback.
ODM Director of Elections and Campaigns, Junet Mohamed sees no big deal in the loss. He believes Raila is the man to beat. He says Raila was ready for both scenarios, with and without the BBI proposed changes.
“Now that the BBI has been put aside by the court, where I belong politically, we had prepared for both scenarios. We had prepared for a scenario where we have a president, deputy president, prime minister and two deputy prime ministers. And also where we have only the president and a deputy president,” Junet stated.
“Now that that is not there, we will also go back to factory settings we will have a presidential candidate and I know who is going to be our deputy president as for now. This is just a battle we have lost, we have a war to win in August next year, so we are preparing for that war,” Junet says, even as critics argue that Raila's path to presidency is now narrower... and almost disappearing.
