New Poll Shows Martha Karua and Rigathi Gachagua's Impact on Raila/Ruto

  • Azimio La Umoja-One Kenya presidential aspirants Raila Odinga (left) and his United Democratic (UDA) counterpart, Deputy President William Ruto (right) at the State Funeral of the late head of state, Mwai Kibaki on Friday, April 29, 2022.
    Azimio La Umoja-One Kenya presidential aspirants Raila Odinga (left) and his United Democratic (UDA) counterpart, Deputy President William Ruto (right) at the State Funeral of the late head of state, Mwai Kibaki on Friday, April 29, 2022.
    File
  • Azimio La Umoja One Kenya presidential flagbearer, Raila Odinga, has overtaken Kenya Kwanza's William Ruto in the latest popularity poll released by TIFA.

    In the opinion poll released on Wednesday, May 18, Raila's popularity stood at 39 per cent against Ruto's 35 per cent.

    According to the poll, conducted after the two frontrunners picked their running mates, Raila's popularity grew from 32 per cent in April while Ruto's dropped from 39 per cent in the same period.

    From left Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu, Murang'a Woman Rep. Sabina Chege, Narc Kenya party leader MarthaKarua and Azimio flag bearer Raila Odinga at the KICC during the running mate
    From left Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu, Murang'a Woman Rep. Sabina Chege, Narc Kenya party leader MarthaKarua and Azimio flag bearer Raila Odinga during the running mate unveiling ceremony at the KICC on Monday, May 16, 2022
    Martha Karua

    "39 per cent of our sample said that they would be voting for Raila Odinga as president and Martha Karua as his running mate while 35 per cent said that they would be voting for the DP and his running mate," TIFA research showed.

    Wiper party leader, Kalonzo Musyoka, who declared his presidential bid on Monday, May 16, after ditching Azimio, comes at a distant third with a popularity of two per cent.

    Notably, 14 per cent of the voters are still undecided while another 9 per cent did not respond to the poll.

    Azimio La Umoja One Kenya is the most popular coalition in the country with a 38 per cent affinity, while Kenya Kwanza comes second with a 28 per cent popularity score. The Raila-led alliance enjoys dominance in Nyanza, Lower Eastern, Nairobi, Western and the Coast region.

    On the other hand, the majority of Kenya Kwanza supporters are from Central and South Rift and Mount Kenya region. 21 per cent of Kenyans prefer none of the coalitions while 10 per cent remain undecided.

    Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA) remains the most popular political party with 29 per cent, 4 points ahead of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

    Surprisingly, only 85 per cent of UDA supporters back the Kenya Kwanza coalition as compared to an overwhelming 96 per cent of ODM supporters who back Azimio.

    With both Raila Odinga and William Ruto picking running mates from the vote-rich Mount Kenya region, the Raila - Martha Karua enjoys a 24 per cent popularity in the region while the Ruto - Rigathi Gachagua ticket enjoys a 46 per cent popularity.

    More men than women supported either pair with the two political coalitions enjoying a 35 per cent support for each from the youth.

    Notably, majority of the voters aged 35 years and above back the Raila - Karua ticket.

    The country's second-in-command lost popularity in the Central Rift, Mount Kenya, Lower Eastern, Nairobi and Western at eleven, seven, five, six and three per cent respectively.

    On the flip side, Raila gained popularity most in Coast and Nyanza (13 per cent each), Western (12 per cent), Central Rift (nine per cent) and Mount Kenya (six per cent).

    Deputy President William Ruto (left) and the Kenya Kwanza running mate Rigathi Gachagua at a past event.
    Deputy President William Ruto (left) and the Kenya Kwanza running mate Rigathi Gachagua at a past event.
    File