Ruto, Raila in Neck-and-Neck Contest in Latest Poll

Presidential candidates William Ruto George Wajackoyah and Raila Odinga.jpg
Presidential candidates William Ruto George Wajackoyah and Raila Odinga.jpg

A new poll released by Trends and Insights Africa (TIFA) shows that neither Raila Odinga of Azimio La Umoja nor William Ruto of Kenya Kwanza would secure a first-round win if elections were held today.

According to the poll released Friday, July 29, Raila's popularity grew by 4 per cent to stand at 46.7 per cent, while that of Ruto grew by 5 per cent to 44.4 per cent.

The poll also showed that Roots Party's George Luchiri Wajackoyah has a popularity rating of 1.8 per cent while Agano Party's David Mwaure came last with a 0.1 per cent approval rating.

In a previous poll by the same research firm, Raila stood at 42 per cent while Ruto had 39 per cent.

Azimio flagbearer Raila Odinga
Azimio flagbearer Raila Odinga speaking during a political campaign on July 23, 2022.
Raila Odinga

"Those intending to vote for DP Ruto overwhelming mention one or another aspect of the economic situation," the TIFA  report read in part.

TIFA  Analyst Tom Wolf further disclosed that 4 per cent would not vote if elections were held today.

"The presence of Prof. George Wajackoyah and David Mwaure raises the possibility that neither Odinga nor Ruto will be able to secure an outright, first-round win," Wolf stated. 

According to the poll, all coalitions have increased their support nationwide. United Democratic Alliance (UDA), affiliated with  Ruto, maintained the top spot as the most popular political party with 41 per cent.

Raila's support in Nairobi county stood at 51 per cent, while Ruto's at 34 per cent.

However, Ruto and his running mate Rigathi Gachagua widened the gap in Mt Kenya, with their popularity standing at 66 per cent while that of the Former Prime Minister at 27 per cent.

The former Prime Minister was most popular in Nyanza and Western, while his Kenya Kwanza counterpart was the preferred candidate in Central Rift and Northern Regions.

Raila also received more support from men than women, the exact opposite of DP Ruto. 

Notably, Wajackoyah's support across all the regions stood at above one per cent attracting most of his support from Coast and Lower Eastern.

Wolf explained that Mwaure attracted slight support in Coast, Nyanza and Mt Kenya.

The survey was conducted in 9 zones; Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift and Western.

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