Renowned political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi, famous for his prediction of the results of the 2013 presidential election, on Sunday, July 31, shared his mathematical prediction for the August 9 poll.
Ngunyi predicted that Azimio presidential candidate Raila Odinga would win the presidential election with 51.3 per cent of the vote, followed by Deputy President William Ruto who would get 45 per cent of the popular vote.
The analyst made his prediction based on the assumption that voters would not deviate much from the pattern created over the past six elections. As such, he projected that Raila would start the election with 44 per cent of the vote - based on his share of the presidential vote over the past three general elections.
“In 2007, Raila got 44 per cent of the vote, same with 2013 and 2017. A banana tree does not give you bananas today and tomorrow and expect to get oranges the day after.”
The second assumption in Ngunyi’s analysis was that Ruto would get a headstart by having a 52 per cent popularity - if he was able to convince all the voters who voted for Uhuru in 2013 and 2017.
“Raila starts the race with votes 6.9 million votes while Ruto has an 8.1 million headstart.
Further, the analyst does a simulation where the numbers are analysed without any reference to the Mt Kenya voting block.
“Out of Raila’s 6.9 million, 300,000 votes are from the Mt Kenya region which would mean he would have 6.6 million votes in this scenario. For Ruto, out of the 8.1 million, 4.3 million of the votes are from Mt Kenya which would leave him with 3.8 million votes in this scenario.”
The third tier of Ngunyi’s model is based on the prediction that in the Mt Kenya region - whenever the voters are split - the candidates have split the share of the vote on a 66:33 per cent basis.
“Historically, whenever the Mt Kenya region has two candidates or when they are not sure of the way forward, they have given one candidate 66 per cent while the other one has received 33 per cent.
“This is confirmed by recent polls which put Ruto’s popularity in Mt Kenya at 66 per cent. If Ruto gets 66 per cent of the 4.3 million votes from the mountain, he will have 7 million votes.
The political scientist who coined Tyranny of Numbers noted that if Raila received 33 per cent of the Mt Kenya votes (1.4 million), he would garner 8 million votes.
Ngunyi predicted that based on the average turnout over the past 30 years, 71 per cent (15.6 million) of registered voters will come out to cast their votes on August 9.
“I have studied all the six General Elections we have held since 1992. I have done that to come up with a predictability model that allows me to see who has the likelihood of winning the election.
“The final results are simple, Raila will get 8 million votes (51.3), Ruto will have 7 million (45 per cent) while six hundred thousand votes will go to Wajackoyah (Roots Presidential candidate)."
The veteran columnist noted that his model was 87 per cent accurate based on the behaviour of the voters who have voted in past elections.
He, however, noted that it was highly likely that if Raila won with 51.3 per cent of the vote, the election was likely to be challenged and the Supreme Court would most probably nullify the poll.
“With 51.3 per cent, he will have crossed the 50 per cent plus one vote threshold by about 200 thousand votes, about 5 votes per polling station and that can be manipulated to have a nullification based on the 2017 precedent.