Narc-Kenya party leader and former Minister for Justice and Constitutional Affairs, Martha Karua, is the person to watch even as Mt Kenya region scouts for the next leader once President Uhuru Kenyatta retires from office.
According to political analysts, Karua, who contested for the Kirinyaga gubernatorial seat in the 2017 elections but lost narrowly to the incumbent, Anne Waiguru, is the most likely candidate to lead the region and champion its agenda in the successive governments.
Karua, who has made it clear that she would not settle for any running mate position, especially in Deputy President William Ruto’s camp, is largely viewed as a solid figure from the region in the Uhuru succession matrix.
Analysts argue that Karua is positioning herself to take over the regional leadership mantle and that she understands the gap that will be created by Uhuru's exit and how to fill it.
Dr Masibo Lumala, a political analyst, specialist and consultant in Gender, Communication and Development, argues that the former Justice Minister in the Mwai Kibaki government, has good credentials, can mobilise the mass and is a force to reckon with.
“She has served the people for long in various capacities. What I know is that Martha is a very strong lady. She is positioning herself strategically to be chosen as a deputy by all presidential candidates," the senior lecturer at Moi University told Kenyans.co.ke.
“They (presidential candidates) would want to have someone who can speak, and Martha can rise to the occasion. She is a good campaigner, a good mobilizer and a force to reckon with.”
Dr Masibo adds that Karua and her nemesis, Kirinyaga Governor, Anne Waiguru, would be among the women who will shape the 2022 elections. However, both women have indicated their intentions to battle for the Kirinyaga gubernatorial seat.
"I won that seat (Kirinyaga gubernatorial seat) in 2017 but my victory was stolen and that's why I want to serve my people. If God gives me more years, I still would want to be President in the future," Karua, a 2013 presidential candidate stated.
Herman Manyora, a Political Science lecturer at the University of Nairobi, acknowledges that Karua is principled but argues that she would have to dance to the reality of the day that she is the best thing that has refused to happen.
The political analyst argues that Karua does have the right credentials to make her the best president due to her philosophy, stances, and belief in human rights. However, in the end, Kenyan politics is aligned with big names, history and financial muscle.
“I do not think she has what it takes to be the Mt Kenya kingpin. I can vote for her 20 times as she is the right choice and can end impunity, but the majority of Kenyans would still choose the big names. Karua is also principled, but for one to succeed as much, they have to play survival politics,” Manyora stated, adding that a politician has to always be flexible and weigh options.
While Karua has been consistent in her politics, Waiguru has kept wavering on her future. She recently denied endorsing Raila Odinga, the Orange Democratic Movement leader, for the 2022 race despite vocally supporting him after the March 9, 2018 handshake.
Her remarks, especially after the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) was declared unconstitutional, raised eyebrows.
Nonetheless, most of Mt Kenya politicians have been aligning themselves with certain factions like the Karua, Moses Kuria (Gatundu South MP) and Mwangi Kiunjuri (former Cabinet Secretary) wing.
Waiguru explained that she wants Mt Kenya to unite as one front and face presidential candidates with demands. “I have been in consultations with the former Prime Minister and other presidential candidates. Many residents think we are divided, yes, on account that we are talking to these people who are seeking the top seat, but you will witness many of these meetings before we unite.
Karua reiterated the same, calling on Mt. Kenya leaders to join hands as the 2022 elections approach.
"We need to plan ourselves. As Mt. Kenya leaders, we cannot wait for others to draw up their game plan while we sit around. If we don't plan, others will plan ahead of us," the former Minister of Justice urged.
Dr Masibo stated that there is a huge possibility that whoever is going to be a presidential candidate in 2022 is likely to pick a woman as a deputy.
He based his argument on Tanzania settling for Mama Samia Suluhu as President after the death of the late John Pombe Magufuli, the US electing Joe Biden as President with Kamala Harris as his deputy and first woman Vice President.
Other examples were Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni appointing women in top executive positions. This includes; his wife Museveni Janet Kataaha as Minister of Education and Sports, Nabbanja Nabbanja as Prime Minister, Rebecca Kadage as the 1st Deputy prime Minister for East African Community Affairs and Lukia Nakadama as the 3rd Deputy Prime Minister without Port-folio.
“In Rwanda, the majority of the government is also made of women. I would really really love to see a scenario where if a man is running for the presidency, let us have a woman as the running mate and whoever will strike that fast may win early,” Dr Masibo, a visiting professor at Pu University in Indiana state, USA, stated.
