Political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi has hypothesised a formula he says could assist the National Super Alliance (NASA) to defeat President Uhuru Kenyatta in the August 8 General Election.
In his analysis titled; Can Raila Force a Runoff? A Strategy for NASA, Prof. Ngunyi opined that it would be better for the Opposition co-principals – Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetangula – not to choose a Presidential candidate.
The political scientist told the former Prime Minister's team to strategically allow the four of them to run for the presidency.
According to Ngunyi, this move would lead to an automatic run-off, after which the NASA leaders should come together and support one candidate.
"The best option is to run separately and then force a run-off. In this situation, the winner amongst them will become the NASA candidate during the run-off," Ngunyi said.
The professor mentioned that it would be an automatic defeat for NASA chiefs if they try and employ the 2002 NARC strategy where leaders including Odinga threw their weight behind former President Mwai Kibaki's election.
Ngunyi cited the 1992 Election where Kibaki, Jaramongi Oginga Odinga and Kenneth Matiba, who were in FORD, failed to agree on a presidential candidate, forcing them to run separately.
After the election, the data showed that their total votes were 62.4 percent compared to retired President Daniel Moi 36.6 percent.
"NASA is where FORD was in 1992. FORD was a grand Coalition of anti-Moi elements led by Raila's father but like NASA it was also a coalition of equals. Jaramogi, Matiba and Kibaki saw themselves as equals.
"And because of this, they could not agree on a single candidate. They had to break FORD up. At the end their votes were 32.4 percent compared to Moi's 36.6 percent but under the old constitution, Moi was sworn in as President," Ngunyi recounted.
Drawing from this analysis, Ngunyi noted that under the new Constitution – which demands a win of 50 percent + 1 vote for one to be declared president – Matiba would have been FORD's candidate to face-off Moi.
"Matiba would have been this particular candidate and I am sure Kibaki and Jaramogi would have supported him. If that would have happened they would have garnered 62.4 percent and taken over Government," he stated.
He added: "If NASA uses the NARC model of 2002, they will lose but if they use the FORD formula of 1992 – where they run separately and then come together during a run-off then I think they have a good chance of winning this election".
Here is Mutahi Ngunyi's analysis:
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