Renowned political analyst Prof Mutahi Ngunyi has revealed that the recently conducted voter registration exercise had little or no impact on the numbers held by either of the two dominant political sides – Jubilee and the National Super Alliance (NASA).
According to Ngunyi, the new voters registered in the exercise that ended on Sunday, have little or no influence on the famous tyranny of numbers prediction that he made in the run-up to the 2013 presidential election.
At the time, Ngunyi noted that Jubilee's candidate Uhuru Kenyatta and his running mate William Ruto would garner a majority of votes due to the fact that their ethnic political bases had recorded impressive figures in registered voters.
Ngunyi added that this year's mobilisation exercise provided an avenue for the Opposition to catch up with their Jubilee counterparts.
Unfortunately, the political analyst opined that Opposition strongholds failed to net enough new voters to neutralise the 'tyranny of numbers' held by Jubilee.
“According to the latest IEBC figures, Jubilee gained an extra 898,972 votes while NASA received 814, 792. But if you subtracted 800 from 800, you get a zero. In other words, NASA lost the opportunity to counter Uhuru's numbers,” Ngunyi stated.
The political analyst noted that the only option for the Opposition is to recoup their losses by ensuring they have very high levels of voter turnout in the August 8 General Election.
He, however, warned that big political alliances in Kenya tend to have very low voter turnout because they create an illusion of early victory.
Interestingly, Ngunyi noted that the easiest way for NASA to enforce higher voter turnout is to let Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka go it alone, adding that such a scenario would force a runoff and ultimately ensure high voter turnout in the Opposition strongholds.
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